AK vs. 2 ridiculous players

[ChuckyB]

Two beauties to my left. Button is 73/15/2. I've seen him cold-call UTG raises w/92, and 3-bet an UTG raise of a fairly good player w/J9.
SB is 88/0/0.7 (yep), but slightly less of a donkey after the flop.

They have called and called and called through the first 70 hands.

Should I have played this any differently?


Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, Button calls, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (7 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Turn: (3.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img](3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (3.50 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 3.50 BB

[milesdyson]

throw out a flop bet (because you still usually have the best hand). turn depends on who calls a flop bet. if sb calls, try to figure out how often he will bet the river with something you beat if you check. if button calls, consider his betting habits when checked to heads up -- and then decide whether to bet or check the turn. if they both call a flop bet, i would check the trun.

bet the flop and spike a K on the turn

seriously, most of the time im betting here, the rest of the hand plays differently from there.

this definitely surprised me tho:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

27,005,743 games 45.640 secs 591,712 games/sec

Board: 9d 6s 3s
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.9829 % 28.49% 00.51% { AdKc }
Hand 2: 35.5098 % 34.86% 00.67% { random }
Hand 3: 35.5073 % 34.86% 00.66% { random }

worth thinking about? maybe i suck at poker after all [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

That is not really weird. With AK you just have 2 overcards while a random hand has the possibility to have hit a pair or better on the flop, and things like straights are flushes are more likely with a random hand.

That said; your opponends won't have a random hand, and usually also have cards that are not hitted with this flop. Therefore it is likely that you are still ahead with AK, or you can still easily improve with a A or K on the turn/river.

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That said; your opponends won't have a random hand, and usually also have cards that are not hitted with this flop.

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Button is 73/15/2. I've seen him cold-call UTG raises w/92, and 3-bet an UTG raise of a fairly good player w/J9. SB is 88/0/0.7 (yep)

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[Aaron W.]

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That is not really weird. With AK you just have 2 overcards while a random hand has the possibility to have hit a pair or better on the flop, and things like straights are flushes are more likely with a random hand.

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This is grotesquely false. You're new, so I'll spell it out for you (this is something you need to learn to do for yourself). A random hand is not likely to be suited and is not likely to be connected:

Probability of two cards being suited: 25%
Probability of two cards being connected (A2, 32, .., AK): 16%
Probability of two cards having a one-gap (A3, 42, .., AQ): 14%

[ChuckyB]

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That said; your opponends won't have a random hand, and usually also have cards that are not hitted with this flop.

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Button is 73/15/2. I've seen him cold-call UTG raises w/92, and 3-bet an UTG raise of a fairly good player w/J9. SB is 88/0/0.7 (yep)

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Well said.

They often have ridiculous holdings...so how could I possible continue past the turn without a pair or a draw?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That is not really weird. With AK you just have 2 overcards while a random hand has the possibility to have hit a pair or better on the flop, and things like straights are flushes are more likely with a random hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is grotesquely false. You're new, so I'll spell it out for you (this is something you need to learn to do for yourself). A random hand is not likely to be suited and is not likely to be connected:

Probability of two cards being suited: 25%
Probability of two cards being connected (A2, 32, .., AK): 16%
Probability of two cards having a one-gap (A3, 42, .., AQ): 14%

[/ QUOTE ]

This issue here isn't how a random does in general, but instead how it does specifically against this AK. This AK has only a backdoor flush draw and not chance for a straight. Some subset of random hands will have have a four flush, a straight draw, 3 flush, both, or neither. This AK doesn't have a pair. Some random hands will have 1 or 2 pairs, or a set. So, even though a random hand is unlikely to be suited or connected ... on average .. random hands in this specific case are likely to be better than this particular AK.

So, the original poster is right ... random hands are more likely to hit a strait or flush than this AK.

If they're just gonna call every bet, then I'd probably play it the same. I might toss in a value bet on the river.

[Guthrie]

I'd play it the same. I've given up continuation betting against loose fish. Since they'll play any two cards, the flop could easily have paired one of them, and since they'll never fold, all you can do is become one of them and hope to spike an ace or king on the river. It works for them, not for us.