Miers Nomination Tanking on TradeSport

Bigdaddydvo · #1 10-21-2005, 08:30 PM

Traders estimate the probability of her confirmation to be about 38%. It's a huge drop when trading opened at her initial nomination of 91%. Here's the trends:

http://www.tradesports.com/aav2/sear...=Harriet+Miers

#2 10-21-2005, 08:57 PM

I still think she's a better than 50% chance. The expectations are getting so low on her confirmation hearing that if she sounds halfway prepared, she's probably going to pleasantly surprise people.

Does anyone here ever bet on this sort of stuff on this site?

#3 10-21-2005, 09:05 PM

You do understand how books work don't you? You understand about the "vig?"

[censored] · #4 10-21-2005, 11:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You do understand how books work don't you? You understand about the "vig?"

[/ QUOTE ]

No I don't

ptmusic · #5 10-22-2005, 04:51 AM

Who cares about that.

Whatchoo mean "Next Year, USC"???

-ptmusic

Bigdaddydvo · #6 10-22-2005, 08:53 AM

On the news this morning there is talk of White House contingency plans for a Miers nomination pullback. This is reported a day after the contract went way south, so traders are obviously aware that something serious is amiss with her nomination.

If she continues to underwhelm Senators on both sides of the aisle during her office calls, I expect the White House to pull the plug in the next week.

(Off topic) Also, USC has a year left tops before Notre Dame reassumes dominance in their series.

#7 10-22-2005, 10:51 AM

vig = vigorish, the juice = the books profit

The oddsmaker sets the spread based on how he sees the result. The book wants half of the bets one way, half the other. Losers pay their bet plus the vig. Book pays winners and keeps the vig. (His finder/broker fee.)

If too much action goes one way or the other, the book lays off what he can. Finds another book with opposite problem and they balance their action. Books are the middle men and can't lose.

Outside of personal preferences, books don't give a rat's ass who wins/loses. They're just looking for as much action as they can handle.

#8 10-22-2005, 01:13 PM

You do understand how tradesports works, don't you?

#9 10-22-2005, 02:24 PM

Must admit when I looked the first time I didn't research the site. It looked like an online betting parlor (book). Made as assumption based on my quick visit.

I read your post. Ooooops, I must've screwed up. I went back. Found this...

"TradeSports.com is a person-to-person trading "Exchange". It allows you to trade in the most innovative, transparent and exciting way on financial, sporting, current events, entertainment and many similar events. TradeSports members trade directly with each other, bypassing the middle-man.

When you trade on TradeSports you are pitting your wits against other members of TradeSports. TradeSports provides the platform whereby members can trade between themselves without paying a Sportsbook margin or vig. The winning member will receive the profits, the losing member pays the loss.

With no vig, no juice, no artificial spread, TradeSports charges a small transaction charge per lot traded."

If this "little fee" ain't vig, what do you call it?

I always figure "If it looks like a duck....."

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#10 10-22-2005, 11:21 PM

The vig is not relevant to the politics forum. Looking at the Tradesports odds lets you see the consensus probability of anything happening. Miers dropping from 93% to less than 50% tells us that the conventional wisdom has changed from "she'll definitely get confirmed" to "Rove will probably plant cocaine in her car soon."