PP 30/60 flop line w/flush draw

krishanleong · #1 10-25-2005, 02:33 PM

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (7 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is HJ with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, SB calls, 1 fold.

Flop: (5 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB raises, Hero calls.

Villian seems okay. 27/14 over 34 hands but most of that was 5 handed. Nothing out of line.

Now the board is paired and small which makes a fairly good flop to play back against a PFR. I'm assuming he has a pair, 7, maybe a 6 or overcards. I don't have a hand that I can showdown unimproved but I have a great draw.

Is my fold equity on a flop 3-bet+turn bet or flop call, turn raise high enough such that making a play should be my default in this situation? If you like to make a play at the pot, which line do you take?

My actual plan was to call down and fold river unimproved, raising if I make a hand at any point. (Q and T included) Thanks for the help.

Krishan

flawless_victory · #2 10-25-2005, 02:36 PM

raise turn.

ALL1N · #3 10-26-2005, 01:26 AM

Raise turn, check behind river, beat a straight draw. ^5!

roy_miami · #4 10-26-2005, 06:13 AM

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Raise turn, check behind river, beat a straight draw. ^5!

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If he was against the BB I would tend to agree but because the SB cold called its very likely he has a hand he wants to showdown. I would just stick with your plan or 3-bet the flop and check the turn.

krishanleong · #5 10-26-2005, 08:55 AM

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raise turn.

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Do you think we have fold equity in this spot? I mean are we going to fold out a better hand an appreciable amount of time? Or do you think we are enough against a straight draw that taking a free showdown is worthwhile? I'm assuming if you get called on the turn you are taking a free river.

If Villian here can have 22-55 any 7 a gutshot or overs, which of these are we behind to that he will fold to a turn raise? I don't think on a paired flop like this many people would release a 7. I think a small pp would call down 80% or more.

If I had AK instead of QT, I think it's probably a much easier decision (I'd calldown) because we have showdown value and can beat many bluffs.

I figure if all my outs are live, I have about 23% equity. Is a turn raise productive enough given I have to put 2 BB into a 5.5 BB pot.

Krishan

Jeffage · #6 10-26-2005, 09:00 AM

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I'm assuming he has a pair, 7, maybe a 6 or overcards. I don't have a hand that I can showdown unimproved but I have a great draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would add 98, 45, hearts or total BS to the possibilities.

[ QUOTE ]
Is my fold equity on a flop 3-bet+turn bet or flop call, turn raise high enough such that making a play should be my default in this situation? If you like to make a play at the pot, which line do you take?

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If you are trying to win the pot w/o showdown, raising the turn is the best line. Problem is, he will not fold the 7 to a raise on the turn unless an ace or king comes (and even then he may not fold). This is b/c it will look like you just have big cards when you make this raise, even though you will sometimes have a big pair. People don't make these folds online. If you raise the turn and he calls, you are likely committed to a river bet however.

On this hand, with this board, I like 3-betting the flop for a free card, though I might continue betting if the right paint hit the turn (or I improve obviously).

Jeff

krishanleong · #7 10-26-2005, 09:04 AM

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I would add 98, 45, hearts or total BS to the possibilities.

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Definitely. Also potentially overcard gutshot hands.

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If you are trying to win the pot w/o showdown, raising the turn is the best line. Problem is, he will not fold the 7 to a raise on the turn unless an ace or king comes (and even then he may not fold). This is b/c it will look like you just have big cards when you make this raise, even though you will sometimes have a big pair. People don't make these folds online. If you raise the turn and he calls, you are likely committed to a river bet however.

On this hand, with this board, I like 3-betting the flop for a free card, though I might continue betting if the right paint hit the turn (or I improve obviously).

Jeff

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Interesting. So the flop 3-bet for a free card + the fold equity on an AK turn + the pair equity from a Q or T + hitting the fluh makes 3-betting better than just calling and raising if you hit. Definitely something to think about. Thanks for the great analysis.

Krishan

krishanleong · #8 10-26-2005, 09:05 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
Raise turn, check behind river, beat a straight draw. ^5!

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If he was against the BB I would tend to agree but because the SB cold called its very likely he has a hand he wants to showdown. I would just stick with your plan or 3-bet the flop and check the turn.

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I come from HUSH so taking free cards HU (or even going for them) is pretty foreign to me. Why is a free card better than just calling and raising if I hit? Are the chances that Villian will donk the turn very low?

Krishan

mmcd · #9 10-26-2005, 11:44 AM

He probably has a bad ace. Raise the turn and if he calls you, bet any non-A river that doesn't double pair the board.

#10 10-26-2005, 12:28 PM

Becuz of the proclivity of many opponents to run bluffs on paired boards HU vs late position raisers, I would 3 bet the flop and bet the turn. If the opponent has nothing he will usually fold the turn, and in this situation there is a higher than normal chance your opponent has nothing. I dont like checking the turn in this situation becuz now we give our opponent the opportunity to outplay us on the river. Id rather bet the turn, and if your opponent calls, than just give up on the river, since you can still beat any broken straight draw and many broken flushdraws or BS hands like J9 that wouldnt give up on the turn. I also would think about betting the river if the opponent was capable of folding Ace high here.