|
|
#1
10-18-2005, 10:18 AM
|
|||
|
|||
Final Table Bubble
InterPoker $200 buy-in - Blinds 2000/4000 - 11 people in; chip distribution very even - 3 big stacks each have 110k, I am tourney shortstack with 55k.
-All fold to cutoff(who has 110k and playing fairly tight, but looser lately), who makes it 12000. I call on the button with 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], SB and BB fold. Pot is 35k with antes. Flop is J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] My opponent bets 16000. I flat call. I figure I don't have enough chips to push out flush draw with all-in, but I am way ahead of any other holding other than JJ, which I wouldn't be able to fold to anyway. Pot now 67000. I have 27000 left. Turn is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Opponent bets 30k immediately. Seems to be very odd bet for anything other than flush draw, but the initial 16k flop bet seems unreasonable for an FD - he voluntarily committs himself to the pot on just a flush draw, supposedly... What do you do? Am I wrong in my analysis? 
|
|
#3
10-18-2005, 10:24 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Final Table Bubble
I like the flat call on the flop. You can't fold your set on the turn. Even if villain has a flush, you have outs.
Push preflop on the semibluff resteal. Particularly with the bubble and villain not playing tight on the bubble, this is a good time for a resteal. Even though you have position, I think a push or fold is better than a flat call. Generally, your play seems passive.
|
|
#4
10-18-2005, 10:37 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Final Table Bubble
i think pre-flop is the most interesting thing here. i would not call. folding is a little better than pushing, and calling is the worst.
if you call and the blinds fold, you're leaving yourself with ~43k and 35k in the pot. unless the flop comes something like AKT or JT9, i think it's going to be hard to get away from this hand. what your plan on a benign flop like J93 2-tone? you can't call preflop without a plan, and there's no plan that doesn't leave you making the wrong decision a lot of times. also, if one of the blinds pushes and the CO folds, you'll be getting around 2:1 but you'll have the chance to make a really bad fold or a really bad call. yuck. pushing is better, but villain is getting close to 2:1, so he'll call with most of his opening hands, and you also risk one of the blinds having a hand. it's pretty close between pushing and folding, but i like folding a little better. flop is fine. i like that line a little better than a push. he may have junk, so it's nice to give him a chance to make a pair or keep bluffing. turn is a turbo-call. if you even considered folding, that's awful. you're ahead probably 90% here. here's a short list of hands villain could have besides a flush: QQ, JK, 99, AK, AT, etc.
|
|
#7
10-18-2005, 10:46 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Final Table Bubble
Yikes, i didnt even look at preflop, yea definitely w/ schwza here, fold or push PF.. don't have enough to play for a set, and won't know enough on the flop to play it the best from there.
|
|
#8
10-18-2005, 10:47 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: Final Table Bubble
[ QUOTE ]
pushing is better, but villain is getting close to 2:1, so he'll call with most of his opening hands, and you also risk one of the blinds having a hand. it's pretty close between pushing and folding, but i like folding a little better. [/ QUOTE ] Assuming no ante, villain is paying 43 to win 73, which 1.7-1. If villain is stealing, he will probably fold. Also with bubble, even though villain has you covered, some people play tight. If villain calls, there is some pot odds with the blinds, and 66 is probably ahead. It is even possible that you are dominating against a lower pp or A6 or lower.
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
