JJ on BB against a probably steal-raise from covering stack

[RiverMel]

Should I go all-in with JJ against a probable steal-raise from an aggressive cutoff who's made a 3x open-raise? In all circumstances, never, only when you're covering the stealer, based on your stack relative to the blinds, etc.? Or is there a better way to get around this?

The hand that brought up this question. I am in a $55 NL stars tourney, with JJ in the BB. Blinds are 50/100, I have 2882 after posting the big, and that's above average (~2500) in the remaining 114 (started 210). Playing 8-handed.

Folded to the aggressive steal-raiser in the cutoff, who makes a raise to 300. I go all in, for the following reasons: 1) I would be more than happy to take the blinds and his raise without a flop. He is not very likely to have a hand that can call. 2) I welcome the benefit of appearing like someone who aggressively will pop back at a potential steal, especially when there are blind increases soon to come and antes starting. Not that this is a huge consideration, but it is a nice small benefit, in my opinion. 3) If I just call, or make a small raise, and I'm ahead at the time, I give him a chance to outflop me. If I get to a flop, JJ is really difficult to deal with, especially when one thinks they were up against a steal raise. (Should I just call pre-flop, and give it up when an overcard flops? I don't think so, it sounds pretty weak. Maybe against a raise from earlier position.)
I feel like if I am behind and just call, and flop no overcard, I am probably going to lose all my chips anyway*, so I may as well get the benefits I listed above the times that my opponent will fold. Of course, if he does call, it's likely I'm way behind, or possibly ahead by a tiny bit, if he is on the looser side or has AK. Maybe I always tend to think my opponents are a little tighter than they are when I plan my plays.


(* when do I think "something's up" when I've just called against a probably steal-raise, flop an overpair with JJ, bet, and then get popped back? What do I need to see to know it's probably smart to back down? This seems like a big laydown....)

Results to follow.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I guess the proper question is - what hands will he lay down to an all-in that he won't lay down if you make it 750?

[RiverMel]

I would guess hands I am already beating, like underpairs and overcards (AQs, AJs, AJo maybe). If I make it 750, he calls, and then flop an overcard, I am pretty stuck.

A secondary question is, can I lay it down if I make it 750 and he then pushes all-in?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

This is, of course, image dependent (in other words, it changes if you've been repopping raisers on a semi-regular basis), but let's assume typical table image.

All-in, he probably won't call with anything but AA or KK. At 750, he might play back at you with QQ or AK. That says you're behind. If he's twice as likely to come over the top with aces or kings than the other two, you're behind about 72% of the time he reraises. I think you can easily make that laydown. I don't think he calls the all-in with anything you beat at this point in the tourney.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

About 65% of the time you're behind

[Justaloser]

I'm gonna throw in my thoughts *disclaimer* they may not be the best advice.

Why not reraise to 1000. If he's on a blind steal, he's not likely to risk 1/3 of his stack, especially since you're telling him you have a hand.

If he reraise, it's an easy (but expensive) fold. If he calls, try to outplay him on the flop.

You're right that if he calls, you're probably gonna lose anyway, but I'm thinking that you are a pretty good player and can come back from the loss of a few chips.

[jace]

I'd probably reraise him to 900 to get some more info. Like others have stated, he would probably fold to this type of raise if he doesn't have a real hand. Thus, you don't have to risk your entire stack and run into AA or KK. If he comes over the top again, then you can probably assume that he has a real hand and then decide what you want to do.

I'm wondering what he would do if you reraised to 900 and he held something like KQ. I'm going to assume that if he had a big ace, he might call or even reraise, but how would you guys feel if he was the type of player who would call a 900 raise with KQ (that's still two overcards to JJ)?

Would anyone advocate just calling and trying to outplay the guy after the flop? I've called 3xBB raises before with hands like JJ, TT, and 99 (for deception) and was fairly successful in grabbing a few more chips. This of course requires good postflop play, reading your opponent, and the texture of the flop. The only problem here is that you're out of position.

[Magician]

I would've done the same thing as you.

If you're right, you win the pot outright if he folds, and if he calls you are at worst a slight dog to two overcards, at best he has a smaller pocket pair or just one overcard.

Even if you are wrong and he has QQ, KK or AA - the move might cause him to fold QQ or even (rarely) KK.

Since he is raising in late position I'm more likely to do this - if he was raising in early position I might make a different play.

[Sarge85]

I haven't read response yet but I'll post mine.

I don't like an all-in move here. I think a re-raise is in order. 500-750??? If he's trying to put a move on and steal the blinds with an aggressive bet, I would think that he'd back off a strong raise if he has trash. However if he calls you - he probably has a premium hand AA KK. In which case your dominated - but (assuming he calls and not re-raies) you won't be out your stack if you loose. If he re-raises back ---- well I'm not sophisticated enough to answer that question.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

In the specific situation you mentioned, it's a tough call. You might make a point and go all-in, and that would be OK. However, you are going to be a small favorite much of the time, occasionally you'll be beaten, and sometimes you'll be a bigger favorite, but unless he has an underpair, or two undercards, you're never going to be a BIG favorite. Therefore you might not want to risk all your chips at this time. You had 29x BB or so, and he only raised 3x, so you'd be putting a lot in to win a little. I guess it depends on how badly you want to make a point to this guy. But you should consider that he's acting before you on all but one hand per round, which is very favorable. I hate having a big stack on my left, especially if they are very aggressive. I always want them on my right.

Consider what might happen if you just call. JJ will be an overpair some of the time, and that will be favorable for you. Occasionally, you'll flop a set, and you might just break him if he also flops a hand. That's a lot of implied odds for that scenario. Sometimes of course you'll flop overcards and be in a quagmire as to how to play. If that happens, you only lost 3x the bb. Because of these considerations, calling might be better than going all-in.

Of course when the relative stack sizes go down in relation to the blinds/antes, you would go all-in here without hesitation.

al