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#1
10-14-2005, 08:14 PM
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HU NL lowball hand
HU NL 2-7 lowball on gamesgrid
my opponet is very adept at picking off my bluffs (or this could mean he's just very loose fishy can't be bluffed i'm not quite sure yet) he's picked off two of my bluffs with hands like Q high, J high. He has 25. I have 15. Blinds are .25/.50 Predraw he raises to 1.50. I shove it in with T8432. He insta-calls and stands pat. This means break right? 
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#3
10-14-2005, 09:30 PM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
[ QUOTE ]
HU NL 2-7 lowball on gamesgrid my opponet is very adept at picking off my bluffs (or this could mean he's just very loose fishy can't be bluffed i'm not quite sure yet) he's picked off two of my bluffs with hands like Q high, J high. He has 25. I have 15. Blinds are .25/.50 Predraw he raises to 1.50. I shove it in with T8432. He insta-calls and stands pat. This means break right? [/ QUOTE ] If Villian would try this with a J, you should certainly stand pat as well. (about 51% of pat hands are Js) That seems unlikely to me, although in a tournament situation this might be a good desperation move. If we eliminate J's then 57% of the remaining pat hands are Ts. But, about 2/3rds of those are worse than yours. Let's do a back-of-the envelope calculation, assuming Villian will try this with a T or better. Equity of standing pat. You beat T9xxx (P=0.28) and T8xxx (P=0.16) but lose to all better hands. So your equity here is about 44%, actually a tad less due to the possibility of a chop. (I didn't take your cards into consideration when calculating the probabilities here, which can make a difference as well.) Equity of drawing. You have 15-18 outs against T's, 11 outs vs. 9's and 87s (except 98xxx where you have 15), 7 outs against 86, 3 outs against 85, drawing dead vs. a 7. Together this works out to about 32% equity vs. Villian's range of hands. Again I didn't take chops into account so the true number is a bit less, nor did I adjust the distribution based on the cards you hold. Against loose-fishy, standing pat probably has more equity. I think it's actually somewhat more likely to see a rough T played this way than a solid 8. A player OOP will not want to play the second round if he's got a marginal holding.
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#4
10-14-2005, 09:45 PM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
[ QUOTE ]
HU NL 2-7 lowball on gamesgrid my opponet is very adept at picking off my bluffs (or this could mean he's just very loose fishy can't be bluffed i'm not quite sure yet) he's picked off two of my bluffs with hands like Q high, J high. He has 25. I have 15. Blinds are .25/.50 Predraw he raises to 1.50. I shove it in with T8432. He insta-calls and stands pat. This means break right? [/ QUOTE ] Wait, I don't get it. You must be on the button if you get to see his draw. Did you raise to enter or limp in?
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#5
10-14-2005, 11:51 PM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
What, nobody believes I'm full of crap about this? I think there's a good chance I am. What range do you put Villian on?
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#6
10-15-2005, 04:35 AM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] he's picked off two of my bluffs with hands like Q high, J high. [/ QUOTE ] Did he have Q-high and J-high, or did you have Q-high and J-high? [/ QUOTE ] he had Q and J high and I was bluffing with pairs or Ace and King highs.
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#7
10-15-2005, 04:36 AM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
[ QUOTE ]
Wait, I don't get it. You must be on the button if you get to see his draw. Did you raise to enter or limp in? [/ QUOTE ] sorry i confused the action. i guess i raised it in. he reraised and i shoved.
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#8
10-15-2005, 05:09 PM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] he's picked off two of my bluffs with hands like Q high, J high. [/ QUOTE ] Did he have Q-high and J-high, or did you have Q-high and J-high? [/ QUOTE ] he had Q and J high and I was bluffing with pairs or Ace and King highs. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This means break right? [/ QUOTE ] No.
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#9
10-15-2005, 08:56 PM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
I was playing the role of the loose fishy in this hand. I actually did feel like I was best on those two bluffs.
On this hand I thought you might have a ten or maybe even a Jack with a good draw. I felt you would draw if I stood pat and was willing to gamboool it up on you missing.
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#10
10-17-2005, 11:44 AM
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Re: HU NL lowball hand
The way I see this, you have just under a 25% chance of improving to a winner if you break (assuming an 8 will win, which is balanced somewhat by not assuming the 9 8 will). So, do you think you have more than a 1 in 4 chance of having the best hand right now? Tough spot.
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