Rebuy Tourney Stars Going into final table hand analysis question

[bluffski]

Hello, This is the first time I have asked a question like this one here, and although the answer may be easy it sure is bugging the heck out of me. I am going to be as specific as possible with prizes and chip counts as I would like some specific debates either way on the decisions that could be made and why in this hand.
This was the Oct14th tournament which had 1870 players with a 24k prize pool.
Prizes were as follows 1st $5407 2nd $3195 3rd$2089 4th$1548 5th$1253 6th $983 7th $737 8th $511 9th$336 10-18th$184.
There are two tables left. Both are 5 handed. I am 8th in chips out of 10. The other two short stacks below me are relatively close to me at over 400k. The rest of the stacks are between 1-3millon in chips.
On this hand the blinds are 30/60k with a 3k ante (aprrox 12 mins left at this level) . I am the big blind in this hand with Ace Queen of clubs. It is folded around to the small blind who bets 600k to put me all in. It costs me 498025 to call. Please note the small blind had 2.5millon in chips when making this move.
The question is should of I had waited to the final table or make my stand here with this hand. A debate as to why I should call, or why I should fold and reasoning behind each would be helpful. I would prefer answers from anyone with advanced knowledge in tournament play at this stage
PokerStars Game #2807613188: Tournament #13546970, Hold'em No Limit -
Level XXIV (30000/60000) - 2005/10/15 - 02:35:25 (ET)
Table '13546970 8' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: mindango (2744234 in chips)
Seat 2: chrisemo (2217745 in chips)
Seat 3: masterblast (429096 in chips) out of hand (moved from another
table into small blind)
Seat 4: TommyTunes71 (2534903 in chips)
Seat 8: bugman68 (561025 in chips)
mindango: posts the ante 3000
chrisemo: posts the ante 3000
TommyTunes71: posts the ante 3000
bugman68: posts the ante 3000
TommyTunes71: posts small blind 30000
bugman68: posts big blind 60000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bugman68 [Qc Ac]
mindango: folds
chrisemo: folds
TommyTunes71: raises 540000 to 600000
bugman68: calls 498025 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [7h 8c 7c]
*** TURN *** [7h 8c 7c] [8s]
*** RIVER *** [7h 8c 7c 8s] [Th]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TommyTunes71: shows [Tc Ah] (two pair, Tens and Eights)
bugman68: shows [Qc Ac] (two pair, Eights and Sevens)
TommyTunes71 collected 1128050 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1128050 | Rake 0
Board [7h 8c 7c 8s Th]
Seat 1: mindango folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: chrisemo (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: TommyTunes71 (small blind) showed [Tc Ah] and won (1128050)
with two pair, Tens and Eights
Seat 8: bugman68 (big blind) showed [Qc Ac] and lost with two pair,
Eights and Sevens

[Exitonly]

You made the right move because:

A) You have less than 10BB, not a whole lot of room (though, if this the $3r the blinds just got capped, so atleast you dont have to worry about that)
b) AQs is a great hand 5 handed
c) With that guys huge raise, i think you can rule out QQ+.. so you're definitely not dominated that way.. could be AK, but i dobut that too... His range other than that is huge, and you're a good deal ahead of it.
d) Gotta play for first, not to just squeek into the FT. Not to say that you should go and actively seek gambles, but you're well ahead of his range here.

Nice push, and tought luck.

Actually I was the one who busted out right before you and sat to your left. I had about 650K and decided to push 33, which was a choice that I've wondered about last night, since one of the big stacks (3 of them were over 2 million) called with AQ. My initial reasoning was that although I might have been able to wait and make the final table, I wanted to play for first. Now I'm not so sure about that push.

[ChrisW]

This is a trivial call. Clearly, SB is going to be pushing aggressively here (after all, you considered folding AQs due to tournament considerations, and he picks up t105K every time you fold). Against any aggressive range of hands (say his best 30-45% of hands), AQs is between 99 and TT in terms of win percentage (it averages around 63%). That gives your call an EV of about +t200K. How often are you going to get a tournament opportunity which nets an average return of 26% of your stack? Not very often. This is the moment.

Another way of looking at the same problem: if you fold AQs, you're only calling on TT+, AK. That's 3.5% of your hands! Basically, you're just giving away 11% of your chips without a fight.

What do you guys think of my pushing 33 in pretty much the same table setup? I'm starting to dislike it a bit. Although the blinds and antes make up quite a portion of my stack, I don't think I should be that desparate and I'm likely to be in a coinflip or dominated in such a situation. There is fold equity, but not much since 3 other stacks have over 2 million.

Although this is probably a bad beat post disguised as a strategy question, I'll take a stab a responding.

Whether you should call SB's all-in should be based patially upon your read (has SB been bullying much with his big stack?), partially upon your skill at playing shortstacked and the rest upon what place you would be satisfied with winning.

AQs is a very good starting hand, especially short handed, but it still is a coinflip to any pockets and is dominated by AK. Although as others have noted, SB could have a very wide range of hands that he could be making this move with...you need to decide whether this is should be your shot at doubling up or busting out.

IMO, you made the right choice. I might have even called with a lesser hand to show that my blinds aren't open season to be stolen. It's unfortunate that he rivered on you but that's part of this game.

Congratulations on moneying. You've shown you have skill to make it deep...now you need the luck to take it down.

John

[Benal]

I was at the other table and I saw this hand go down. Although I was cheering for that T, I felt bad for you when it hit. You made the right call regardless of the result. I know I make that call almost every time.

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I was the one who busted out right before you and sat to your left. I had about 650K and decided to push 33, which was a choice that I've wondered about last night, since one of the big stacks (3 of them were over 2 million) called with AQ. My initial reasoning was that although I might have been able to wait and make the final table, I wanted to play for first. Now I'm not so sure about that push.

[/ QUOTE ]

Big stack calling with AQ is actually a very good result for you. I mean, you are either getting called by overcards, which is best result and you are ahead, or an overpair, which you are a huge dog to. Here you ended up getting a shot at doubling up as the favorite, and wouldn't be asking this if you won the coinflip. I don't know what position you pushed from or any other details, I just know you should be happy you got called by overcards, and sorry you lost the coinflip.


As for original poster, I definatly call here, and being results oriented, I pump my fist knowing I got my money in on a 3:1. Would you be posting this if you won the 3:1?

[ QUOTE ]
Although this is probably a bad beat post disguised as a strategy question

[/ QUOTE ]

Not every strategy question that includes a bad beat has to be a bad beat post. I'm guessing that the latest "Masters" hand will probably have a bad beat as the result. It doesn't mean that it's a bad beat post.

To the OP, you made the right call. You don't ever fold this here. You won't get a better spot. To the guy who pushed 33, that's a good push too. You probably take down he blinds, and if you get called, you're probably a coin flip. Remember, you don't want to survive to the FT, you want to win/place as high as possible.

Will

[bluffski]

hello, the reason for the post was not because of the outcome but for the thought process as viewed by others who have been in this situation many times before. I have been in this situation many times. Ive almost always called unless i was chipleader or close to it against 2nd stack and the rest of the stacks were small. Today though I really wanted some debate on why to call or why not too. That was my reason for the post and i thank you all for replying