Play It Again Sam

naphand · #1 10-15-2005, 09:35 AM

I thought this would pose an interesting problem for anyone interested in looking at positional matters more closely. We play the same hand twice from EP but switch the PF play of our opponents. How does this affect our post-flop game? As follows.

The game is $5/$10 Hold'em (10 handed).
You are UTG+1 and have a slightly battered image. Player in MP is loose and fairly passive (PFR 6), CO is a rock with figures V$IP 13 PFR 0. The rest of the table is average for the limit.

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Hero...

What is your plan for the rest of the hand?

Now let us take the same hand and play it this way:

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Hero...

What changes do you make to your plan?

admiralfluff · #2 10-15-2005, 10:33 AM

I really don't see what you're getting at with this post. In either hand you will almost never have the best hand on the flop, and almost never be able to get the best hand to fold. You have 5ish outs closing the action, so both of these are easy check/call flop, check/fold turn UI.

#3 10-15-2005, 10:47 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Now let us take the same hand and play it this way:

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 2 folds, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO 3-bets, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (10.40 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets, CO calls, Hero...

What changes do you make to your plan?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't we try isolation re-raising this preflop? Or do we never get MP2 to fold

naphand · #4 10-15-2005, 11:36 AM

Two things that might help to open up this analysis a little more:

(1) Interpret the PT figures. The figures I have given are not to be taken as absolutes, perhaps it would have been better the describe these players as LOOSE/AVERAGE and TIGHT/PASSIVE but I know you guys love to see numbers. Take the figures with a pinch of salt and use them in a more practical way. Clearly this is implied, otherwise CO would not be allowed to raise in the second example...[img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

(2) You will almost never have the best hand on the Flop. I disagree, none of the big cards are out. The trouble I am in depends very much on what hand ranges you put these players on and I really do not see myself as "almost never" being ahead.

You are putting one of the players on AA-JJ almost every time? You think CO will just call this flop with an overpair? If you are calling the Flop and seeing the Turn you are check-folding no matter what? You have 6 outs to win here against an overpair (4 versus JJ), and the pot will be around 8 BB on the Turn when it comes back to you.

I see myself ahead here enough times to add significant equity to my 4-6 outs.

AA-QQ 18
JJ 3
TT 1
99 6
AKs 4
AQs 4
AKo 12
AQo 12

I am behind 21 hands, splitting with 1, ahead of 38. The big suiteds are only a problem 25% of the time, and the big pairs I have 6 outs against.

Even if we include 77/88 my set outs are still good and the straight outs (when the board is unpaired), which is most of the time.

Explain why I am in big trouble? There is more to this hands than first glance may suggest IMO.

naphand · #5 10-15-2005, 11:44 AM

We cannot isolate MP when he is a 3-bettor and there is already a cold-caller. In the second example MP has called 2 cold and will again (he is loose remember).

#6 10-15-2005, 12:16 PM

Not post related, but did you know that the quote from Casablanca is "Play it, Sam?" He never says "play it again sam."

Hand is meh.

admiralfluff · #7 10-15-2005, 12:37 PM

With a "rock in the hand" with a VPIP ~10%, for him to 3 bet preflop, or cold call 3 preflop he has a big pair or AKs. When the passive player who 3 bets pre follows on the flop, he will usually have a big pair.

If you get a little looser/more aggressive with the players, the tight players cold call is more likely big cards or smaller pair, which puts you ahead of him often on the flop. The loose player is also more likely to follow through the flop with overs.

So if we go a little broader on the reads, in the first scenario, the 3 bet preflop and flop follow from a passive player means we are often up against a big pair. If we have an equity edge it is marginal, so raising for value is no good. We cannot raise for protection, or for a free card. I say call the flop, check/call the turn (c/f a non-diamond), bet/fold the river if the TP drops out on the turn, otherwise check and don't overcall.

In the 2nd scenario, the loose player could have a wide range of hands. If he's not loose and very passive, but loose and average, he could be donking here with a wide range of weaker made hands and draws. When the tight pf 3bettor doesn't raise the flop donk, he will usually have AK. We have a fair equity edge in this situation. I still am not sure if a c/r on the flop is best, or if calling the flop and leading a safe turn is best. Any AKQ, and most diamonds will cripple our hand. I'm in a rush now, but the pasive donker is likely to check behind the turn with a hand we beat if there are 2 callers on the flop (one of them a pf 3bettor). I would lean towards a flop call, bet any safe turn, check/fold a nasty diamond, check/call anything else. I'll think more about it later.

shant · #8 10-15-2005, 12:51 PM

I don't see how the preflop play affects this situation. Call closing the action with 5ish outs.

naphand · #9 10-15-2005, 01:10 PM

Yes I was aware he never actually says this - just as Captain Kirk never actually says "Beam me up, Scotty" - somehow it has come into existence. Strange is it not?

#10 10-15-2005, 01:14 PM

I want to respond with the incorrect Macbeth quote everyone uses, but uhm, I forgot it! Fuckit, back to the poker tables.