$33SNG Bubble decision vs. chipleader

[tipperdog]

This one vexes me.

4 players left (normal top-3 payout structure). Blinds just increased to 75/150. I am SB with 1,400 chips. Chipleader is BB with 4,000. UTG and UTG+1 both have ~1,100.

Chipleader is not particularly aggressive--he is not playing like a guy with a monster stack. He has picked up big hands at opportune times and gotten paid off. However, very recently (last 10 hands) he has opened up a bit and called some desperation all-ins with marginal hands.

UTG is super-tight. He is trying to fold his way into the money. UTG+1 seems a pretty good player. He will go down swinging.

In the SB, I pick up A6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Folded to me (chipleader in BB). What's the play?

[splashpot]

ICM says push. I push this, but I'm sort of discovering that I can be over aggressive on the bubble at times.

[zambonidrivr]

raise it up 2.5-3x BB. if he shoves, you still have FE to lay this this hoe down. next time you get the chance, shove to his blinds vs. raise.

I dont like the raise x3bb at this level. Im probably going to push here in almost every situation and hope for the best.

That might sound silly, but think about this. The big stack/chipleader has been calling some desperate allins with marginal hands. You move in with A6suited he calls with a marginal hand like 9,10 or J,10 or 5,6 and you might have a chance of doubling up.

Also you are the second larger stack here, it almost seems that the chip leader is only screwing around will the small stacks trying to eliminate one quickly so that he is guranteed in the money. I dont think he will mess with you.

Push and watch him fold.

Yeah, a non-all in raise is just begging a player like you describe to come over the top of you, forcing you to fold the best hand too many times to make it a profitable play.

[zipppy]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, a non-all in raise is just begging a player like you describe to come over the top of you, forcing you to fold the best hand too many times to make it a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he described the big stack as someone a non-push could work on. "not particularly aggressive". When the big stack called allins, were the allins very short stacked? If so, he may not be willing to go toe-to-toe with your stack, even if it is much smaller than his.

You have more than 8 BBs. I like the 2.5-3x raise. If he is willing to call allins with marginal hands, to me that makes pushing less appealing...with A6 suited, it's probably going to be a race, and if you're a better player I'd look for spots that aren't coinflips (even if I am ahead).

Raising (and not pushing) forces him to make a decision, and if he pushes you can get out of the hand. On top of that, and maybe more/most importantly, raising will give you valuable insight into his play as a big stack that you'll be able to use to your advantage the rest of the sng.

>>>ZIPPPY

[ QUOTE ]


Raising (and not pushing) forces him to make a decision, and if he pushes you can get out of the hand.
>>>ZIPPPY

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And if he calls and the flop doesn't contain an ace? You check and fold? You bet out? Sounds like a bad plan to me.

[zambonidrivr]

Fair enough, shove those chips in. I am not against that, and with 3 = stacks left and one big, agression pays

[junkmail3]

This is a pretty easy push. Your stack is not so great that you walk into the money, and this is a good hand to pick up 225 chips. (If you do get called, you have a somewhat decent hand to play with)

[tipperdog]

RESULTS....

Still don't know the right play, but I went with the 2.5x raise, planning to fold if raised. The BB pushed and I folded (I'm still fairly sure his push meant I was in trouble.)

Now, instead of a close 2nd chipleader, I was the table shortstack (by a very narrow margin). I pushed KT within a few hands, ran into AJ and busted on the bubble.