Big Pot, Big Draw

[DavidC]

Paradise Poker: (blinds $0.50/$1)

Saw Flop:
Seat 2: SB ($241.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Hero ($104.50 in chips)
Seat 4: UTG ($281.00 in chips)
Seat 5: UTG+1 ($139.00 in chips)
Seat 6: MP1 ($178.00 in chips)
Seat 8: MP2 ($126.75 in chips)

Hero in BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

PF: Blinds post. The following players call:
UTG, UTG+1, MP1, MP2, SB, Hero checks.

*** FLOP *** : 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] Pot: $6, Players: 6

SB: Bet ($6)
Hero: Call ($6)

----------------------------------------

What do you guys think so far?

SB has been pretty conservative thus far. I'm willing to put him on either a set or an overpair. In limit, he could have a flush draw, but in no-limit, it's painful to bet into a crowd with a flush draw.

----------------------------------------

UTG folds, UTG+1 raise to $20, MP1 folds, MP2: Raises all-in to $125.75, SB: Calls $119.75...

----

At this point, I've got $103 left, and an effective pot of $309+26 = $335 less rake of $3 = $332.

I know that I'm hurt when a flush draw runs up against a set rather than an overpair, or a board pair rather than an overpair (when the flush draw has overcards to the pair).

I'm a little nervous about my flush or straight outs being counterfeited, but the action doesn't really seem to justify that. Also, and this is awesome, there seems to be a very good chance that I'm in a set vs set or a set vs two pair... if this is the case, then these guys are chewing up eachother's outs, which increases my equity in the hand!!

Hero calls.

Good?

[kitaristi0]

I fold. With 4 people this happy about their hands, I fail to see how you can be ahead (your gutshot draw is probably your only shot at winning).

I'm very weary of a higher flush draw here, plus a set or two. If there's a higher flush draw and a set out there, you're drawing to 3 outs, and even then there's a bucketload of redraws.

[noggindoc]

i like the call but throw up in my mouth a little when someone has a higher flush draw

[DavidC]

bump for the evening crowd.

I like the call too. I dont believe they're on flush draws since they're raising so much, raising on flush draws is done to try and win the pot rite there, but with a bet and a call the person behind can't be raising thinking a flush draw is going to be the best hand by pushing 2 ppl off their hands. I dont think the original better would raise again all in with a flush draw but there are some wild players out there.
So if nobody has a flush draw and ur gutshot will be good you're proly about a 40%ish chance of winning after trying to factor in kill cards. Seems like a good call to make getting such great odds on ur money [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[goofball]

I like the call. If you assume you're flush and straight outs are good it looks like you'll get there just over half the time by the river. Getting 3:1 pot odds seems more than enough overlay for set redraws or the small number of times you see higher hearts.

[bholdr]

"I'm a little nervous about my flush or straight outs being counterfeited"

consider also that your draw could be counterfeiting other people's hands/draws... like 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]... a nut flush draw is not getting odds to call... it also smells like MP2 is trying to protect against draws, maybe 99 or something like that, in which case even the J would be an out. just thinking out loud.


this draw is big enough to play here, IMO, but i like to be the aggressor with it.

[Isura]

I think it's a fold. MP2 looks a lot like he has a draw. Maybe 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]x:heart such as A5 or A8s+. If he's a donk, he's pushing with overpairs but when SB calls you have to figure atleast one person has you in trouble. You aren't even closing the action. You'd be getting close to 4:1 when utg2 calls too, but you can't even expect your heart outs to be good then.

[Allinlife]

calling that bet after a cold call of an allin will lose you money over the long run. you are not getting the right odds for your draw.

[DavidC]

Thanks for your response, Isura.

A5s is a monster that someone could have, and A3s likewise, if they can get a naked 8 to fold.

Due to the action, how many callers can MP2 expect if he pushes?

Because this changes his hand range, right?

I mean, he's got to put someone on a set so far, if he doesn't have a set himself already.

So, he's going to get at minimum one caller.

Will he get more than one, though? Because if so, then this is a good play for a flush draw. If he won't get more than one, then this is a dangerous and potentially costly play, right?

(Keep in mind that I'm not very current on my NLHE theory, so I could be way off. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] ).

Also, I'm kinda curious about what SB could have... would SB be betting here with a flush draw to build up a pot? He's not in position, and if it's raised, he's in trouble, particularly if it's an isolation raise from one of the earlier players rather than a pot-building late position raise...

So... I don't really know if SB could have a flush draw at this point. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] If he does, it's almost surely better than mine. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

One thing that confuses me, Isura, is that you've brought up the issue of me not closing the action...

Since I'm going all-in here, I don't think that me closing or not closing the action matters, with the exception that I don't know precisely my pot odds (but I'm getting a good price on my money so far anyways, presuming that I'm not completely uck-fay'ed), and I don't have all the information possible about EP2's hand yet... but I don't think he's raising a draw vs a bet and a call either, unless he's trying to buy a free card with position... but if he DOES have a flush draw, what the hell does he think SB has, and how does he think SB will respond to his raise?