Line check with flopped set OOP

Godfather80 · #1 10-12-2005, 11:12 AM

Villain in the hand was 53%VP$P, 0% preflop raises, and had an Aggression factor of around 5 after 45 hands.

PokerRoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (10 handed) converter

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 ($22.85)
MP3 ($21.70)
CO ($24)
Button ($13.35)
SB ($6)
BB ($37.05)
UTG ($25.20)
UTG+1 ($23)
UTG+2 ($21.65)
MP1 ($47.80)

Preflop: Hero is dealt 7:hearts:7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.25, MP1 calls $0.25, 2 folds, CO calls $0.25, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks checks.

Flop: ($1.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1, UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to $2, CO calls $2, SB folds, Hero raises to $8, MP1 calls $6, CO folds.

Turn: ($19) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $9, MP1 raises to $19, Hero calls $10.

River: ($57) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

Final Pot: $57

I reraised the flop not to pump money into the pot, but to try and lose the CO who was clearly on a draw. Was this a mistake?

I felt very shakey about the turn bet. I didn't want to give him free cards to back into a straight, but I also didn't want to pump money into a pot where I expected that I was behind.

Thoughts?

jkkkk · #2 10-12-2005, 11:21 AM

pf & flop fine, 3-bet-push turn.

#3 10-12-2005, 11:23 AM

You did the right thing on the flop

With a VPIP of 53, MP1 could have all kinds of pair+draw hands, draw hands, two pair hands, etc. So on the turn you need to bet close to the pot, and if he raises, be happy to get it all in.

If he flopped a higher set or the straight, you will pay him off since the turn card bricked. Don't feel bad if this happens.

Godfather80 · #4 10-12-2005, 11:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
pf & flop fine, 3-bet-push turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow. Do you think I have to do this because my turn lead was so weak that it invited a raise?

jkkkk · #5 10-12-2005, 11:27 AM

Well this guy said it:

[ QUOTE ]
With a VPIP of 53, MP1 could have all kinds of pair+draw hands, draw hands, two pair hands, etc. So on the turn you need to bet close to the pot, and if he raises, be happy to get it all in.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't notice the weak lead on the turn, bet ~15, go over the top of a raise, this guy really could have anything and hes not laying down lesser hands to a 3-bet and probably paying for a draw.

Guin · #6 10-12-2005, 11:48 AM

I am not sure how you think you are behind against a loose aggro player like that. Can you put him on a hand like J9 or KJ? He is probably on 910, 10J, or some hand like that.

On the river I don't know why you don't push and put him to the test. If they didn't make the nut straight then you are fine... and you win without showing which should help table image later.

I just find those loose players love when they flop two pair but get worried when the high cards come out because they know that us tight players have them. Actually you never mentioned what your stats looked like at the table.

Guin

Isura · #7 10-12-2005, 12:00 PM

A 53% VP player who raises the flop and calls your 3-bet is not going to fold on that specific turn card. Bet close to the pot on the turn. Definitely push after he reraises. He's got two pair or some slowplayed overpair way more often than a higher set here.

Godfather80 · #8 10-12-2005, 12:14 PM

I think you guys are correct. Against this type of player, I should have 3 bet the turn. Unfortunately, in this case, he showed J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for the flopped straight. What is bizarre is that he didn't bet the river, saving me almost $10.

Thanks for your advice. I will be more likely to push the turn next time because his hand range is much wider than the nuts.

Leptyne · #9 10-12-2005, 01:20 PM

I like your flop raise, but not for the reason you stated. When I've got a player on a draw I just want to kill his odds. Not just pot odds, but the implied odds that he'll get paid off if he hits. On a coordinated board like this you've got to raise big like you did which also tells everyone that the next bet will be a monster.

OK, you've isolated, now lead with a pot-sized bet. I don't like a small half-pot lead after the big check-raise. Just reeks of weakness. Unless you're setting him up with the weak lead, in which case he stepped into your trap, now push when he re-raises.

I think with PFA of 5 villain would have re-raised you on the flop if he had a made straight or set. Brunson says you never want to lose your stack in an unraised pot, but when villain calls your flop re-raise you turned a limped pot into a monster. When you make the $9.00 lead at the turn you've got almost half your stack in the pot. Since you're now committed you've got to go ahead and push when villain raises. Your call lets villain check behind on the river. You let him get away when he was also committed.

Guin · #10 10-12-2005, 02:12 PM

I think we usually get in that situation where with time to reflect we can see how we could use our PT stats better.

Remember to add that guy to your buddy list... calling raises with j9o are the types of guys we long to find.

Guin... wishes our short term results could reflect our correct play.