ATs hand - when should i bet...when should i check?

vhuntd · #1 10-11-2005, 01:47 AM

Anybody check the flop? Anybody bet the turn?

Party Poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.

River: (9.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets, BB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 10.25 BB

MrWookie47 · #2 10-11-2005, 01:48 AM

It's not to late to re-convert your hand into 2+2 format instead of FTR. If something doesn't look right when you preview your post, please fix it.

vhuntd · #3 10-11-2005, 01:53 AM

Sorry...didn't realize i was in FTR format...i changed it

LoaferGee12 · #4 10-11-2005, 01:56 AM

NH. No other possible line.

aces_dad · #5 10-11-2005, 01:59 AM

Why not bet the turn with our equity edge (9 nut flush / 3 more gut shot and upto 1.5 A outs)?

vhuntd · #6 10-11-2005, 02:02 AM

I didn't want the button to raise and knock the other players out of the pot or force me to call 2. I'd much rather it get checked through...or have the button bet, everyone call, and close the action myself. That was my thinking anyways.

LoaferGee12 · #7 10-11-2005, 02:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet the turn with our equity edge (9 nut flush / 3 more gut shot and upto 1.5 A outs)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting the turn for equity with a draw is almost never (if ever) correct. We are counting on too many people to call and the chance that we get raised magnifies the -EV of the bet.

moose47 · #8 10-11-2005, 02:05 AM

I play this the same way. I do have a general question though. The situation where you bet or check-raise the flop for value with a strong draw arises quite frequently. In this situation you have a strong draw on the turn (11 outs to the nuts, 1 more out to a non-nut straight, and 3 outs to top pair). We are going to improve our hand almost 33% of the time on the river.

So I guess my question is just how many opponents do we need here to bet for value on the turn? If we knew all of our opponents would call it seems to me that we would need 3-4 of them. But certainly we cant be assured of that in a case like this where no one has shown strength yet but hero. My gut tells me we need about 5 opponents for a bet to be for value but I am not positive. Anybody have any thoughts on this?

aces_dad · #9 10-11-2005, 02:05 AM

What evidence did you have that button would choose the turn to do something other than call in this hand?

#10 10-11-2005, 03:06 AM

[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]I would almost always bet on the turn, not for value but as a semi-bluff, players who will see the flop for one small bet routinely fold the turn for the double sized bet. They will probably put you on top pair and if the field is reduced to one on the river I would bet again as a complete bluff, not to mention you still might have the best hand, the button could be bluffing here and since you raised would expect you to have a large pocket pair AK or AQ, if he has the Q its likely with a poor kicker and if he has hit the flop elsewhere he would still be behind to your possible AQ. I always find it a pleasant surprise when I win a showdown with a bluff but in this case your equity is close enough with your draw that your not losing much against weak players by betting and if you bet on the river as a bluff it only needs to work 1 out of 10 times to be profitable. by the way I'm new to the forum so Hello all and let me know if I'm way out of line here.