Party Sidebets - I know my math is off.

Artsemis · #1 10-09-2005, 02:55 AM

Okay, I figured up the chance of a specific colored flop to be about 1 to 7.5, and you are getting paid 1 to 8. I know Party wouldn't be that dumb and I'm simply making a matematical mistake -- what is it? Thanks.

#2 10-09-2005, 02:59 AM

I got the same thing but I'm probably just a math noob also.

slavic · #3 10-09-2005, 03:00 AM

look again it's 1 for 8

or restated 1 to 7

Matt24 · #4 10-09-2005, 03:03 AM

I get the odds are 11.765%. 1 in 8.5.

26/52 * 25/51 * 24/50

Seems right.

PokerGoblin · #5 10-09-2005, 03:03 AM

It is only +EV if you make your bet after seeing your hole cards (assuming they are one color and you bet the opposite).

A random flop with 52 cards is (26/52)*(25/51)*(24/50) = 11.76. The payout, 1/8 is .125. So before seeing your hole cards it is -EV.

I doubt they will allow betting bet after you see your hole cards.

PG

#6 10-09-2005, 03:03 AM

26/52*25/51*24/50=.117xxxx or 2/17. Your payout is 1/8 or 2/16. So your getting an 8BB pot on a draw that's only coming 1 in 8.5 times.

Artsemis · #7 10-09-2005, 03:18 AM

Yeah, that's same as I had gotten. I had said 1:7.5, which is the same as 1 in 8.5

benfranklin · #8 10-09-2005, 03:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I figured up the chance of a specific colored flop to be about 1 to 7.5, and you are getting paid 1 to 8. I know Party wouldn't be that dumb and I'm simply making a matematical mistake -- what is it? Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability is about 11%, or about 8-1 against. The payout is 8 for 1, not 8 to 1. 8 for 1 is the same as 7 to 1. So, in round numbers the probability is 8-1 and the pot odds are 7-1.

#9 10-09-2005, 03:25 AM

I thought they meant 8 TO 1; now I can see why it's -EV.