Flopping 2 pair out of the blinds and going to war

jskills · #1 10-08-2005, 05:03 PM

Villan seems pretty solid - is a TAG.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is SB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 5 folds, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: (4 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero bets, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ?

Ok, given the flop cap, what's our plan here?

Check / call down?
Bet / call down?
Bet / fold?

mtdoak · #2 10-08-2005, 05:05 PM

probably bet call. He probably has something like 88.

Harv72b · #3 10-08-2005, 05:10 PM

Bet/call down, or check fold the river if it's a 7 or T. He could have an overpair, or he could have flopped a set.

Of course, it's also possible that he's holding something like A7s to clubs, or that he decided to play 65s from up front.

BigBrother · #4 10-08-2005, 05:27 PM

A read on the table as a whole would help here as villain limped 2nd in from EP. Probably a small PP but could be suited connector if table is LP preflop. Higher than 88 most TAG's will raise here unless the table is a cold-call fest, so you may be up against a set.

Flop action looks like overpair or set. TAG's aren't usually capping 66 or Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] might cap here as well, but won't likely take a free card on the turn.

I like check/call down as I think your 2 pair is good > 25%

--BB

jskills · #5 10-08-2005, 05:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Bet/call down

[/ QUOTE ]

Damn. It seems we think alike. This is the line I chose.

lighterjobs · #6 10-08-2005, 05:33 PM

the only thing i can think of is 33, 44 or A7c.

call down.

BigBrother · #7 10-08-2005, 05:35 PM

I'm curious as to why a bet/call down is +EV in this situation.

Seems to me more hands that you beat will bet the turn than raise it, and hands you are behind will always raise you.

Is giving a free card really that big a risk?

--BB

jskills · #8 10-08-2005, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm curious as to why a bet/call down is +EV in this situation.

Seems to me more hands that you beat will bet the turn than raise it, and hands you are behind will always raise you.

Is giving a free card really that big a risk?

--BB

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not certain what the correct line here is at all. I was just saying what I did. Realistically, we're only behind 77 right ?(although 44 or 55 are possible, they are much less likely given our holding).

BigBrother · #9 10-08-2005, 06:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I am not certain what the correct line here is at all. I was just saying what I did. Realistically, we're only behind 77 right ?(although 44 or 55 are possible, they are much less likely given our holding).

[/ QUOTE ]

77 is probably the most likely TAG holding that you are behind (limped 2nd in from EP) unless the table is a family-potfest.

Then you would have to give more credit to 33, 44 and 56(4 suited combos), but you would also have to give more credit to TT-88 as some TAGs would only limp those and play them for set value.

33 and 44 seem unlikely, but there are 2 combos, where there is only one combo of A7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Like so many of the situations we end up discussing, I think it's close.

BigBrother · #10 10-08-2005, 06:56 PM

NT