Common situation, LAG donks river in apparent bluff.

Intent · #1 10-07-2005, 04:36 AM

sb is a 66/22. I've seen him make serious bluffs before, and I think he's bluffing now. I feel my read on him is pretty good, and I'm quite sure he doesn't have a 3. I think he's donking me with some random unpaired hand in a kind of desperation bluff. But all the same, can I raise here? He's such a LAG I think I have to call a 3 bet. And I'm not positive he calls me with a worse hand.

I feel like this situation comes up fairly often. I talked to two people about it on AIM, and we couldn't come up with a consensus.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, MP checks.

Turn: (1.50 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP folds, SB calls.

River: (3.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets, Hero ...

Final Pot: 5.50 BB

DCWGaming · #2 10-07-2005, 04:41 AM

Uh...if you're more than 50% sure he's bluffing, you raise and fold to a 3bet.

I dont really see why its more complicated than that...maybe im retarded though.

Moozh · #3 10-07-2005, 04:57 AM

If you think he's bluffing, there's no value in a raise. I vote for call.

zephed · #4 10-07-2005, 05:03 AM

I don't think a river 3-bet is reliable indicator that we're beat against a LAG.

Maybe that makes it an argument for just calling.

StellarWind · #5 10-07-2005, 05:15 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Uh...if you're more than 50% sure he's bluffing, you raise and fold to a 3bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
Suppose this were live and you saw his cards but he didn't realize you saw them. One card was 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and the other card looked like 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (gutshot) but you are only 95% sure. There is a 5% chance it was really the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because 3 and 8 look a lot alike. If he has 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he will 3-bet you. If he has 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he will fold 90% of the time and bluff 3-bet 10% of the time. Of course even though he only bluff 3-bets 10% of his eights, any particular 3-bet is a 9-5 favorite to be a bluff because threes are rare.

Your recommendation is to raise and fold to a 3-bet because you are more than 50% sure he is bluffing?

Back to the actual hand. He may have a three and he may have a better nine. This could even be some sort on insane slowplay gone wrong with 65 or something. You certainly have some scope for losing here.

Question 1: Why didn't Mr. 22% PFR raise to isolate a single limper with high cards?

Question 2: Why didn't Mr. Donkey bet the flop with a seven, four, or small pocket?

Question 3: Do you think you can get paid for your better hand when he is bluffing? Can you do it often enough to compensate for all the times he has a perfectly normal moronic three and 3-bets you? BTW I agree that raise-folding is scary. You will lose some pots even if you decide you can correctly fold to the 3-bet.

You need to examine your read and decide what is right for this Villain. But these are the questions you need to ask yourself.

stigmata · #6 10-07-2005, 05:15 AM

It's tough to fold to a 3 bet against this guy.

Many hands will call our raise -- any pair, any ace, perhaps even a king. On the other hand, a LAG probably would have shown aggression with most pairs (except, perhaps, bottom pair). I would just call and expect to see Q6 or some such gutshot+overcard nonsense most of the time.

witeknite · #7 10-07-2005, 10:33 AM

Allow me to be the first to say (in this thread) that you rock, StellerWind. Great post. That is all.

WiteKnite