When do I drop it like it's hot?

irishpint · #1 10-03-2005, 05:59 PM

Second orbit, no reads yet. I'm concerned about the flop raise. When I get 3bet I think i need to call and see the turn since the pot is pretty big and I pick up a gutshot so now I need to see the river (5 outs + gutshot = 9 outs, but probably less, like 5 or 6). On the river i make a crying call thinking maybe he has a worse T but i think i need to fold this, correct?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: kfly is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, kfly raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets, kfly raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP 3-bets, kfly calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (8.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
UTG checks, MP bets, kfly calls, UTG folds.

River: (10.75 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, kfly calls.

Final Pot: 12.75 BB

Paxosmotic · #2 10-03-2005, 06:01 PM

Don't know that you can. You've got plenty of odds to call on the flop and the turn, and then the river is one of those "well I only have to win 1 in 11.75" times.

irishpint · #3 10-03-2005, 06:05 PM

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Don't know that you can. You've got plenty of odds to call on the flop and the turn, and then the river is one of those "well I only have to win 1 in 11.75" times.

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you like the flop raise or no?

Paxosmotic · #4 10-03-2005, 06:09 PM

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Don't know that you can. You've got plenty of odds to call on the flop and the turn, and then the river is one of those "well I only have to win 1 in 11.75" times.

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you like the flop raise or no?

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No sir, I don't like it. He's betting into a preflop raiser. He might as well have the K taped to his forehead.

Infact, I misoverestimated our flop outs, you can probably fold on the spot.

Guruman · #5 10-03-2005, 06:24 PM

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He's betting into a preflop raiser. He might as well have the K taped to his forehead.

Infact, I misoverestimated our flop outs, you can probably fold on the spot.

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I think it was probably a mistake to raise pf with two limpers already in. If you were suited it would be another matter, but the problems with ATo show up when you pair the T and it's not top pair.

IMO fold>call>raise here without a read.

Given that you did raise though, I'd have a hard time autofolding to a flop bet in an 8.5 sb pot when I connected. I like the raise as it gives you the best chance to win against this many people, and it really defines the villain's hand if you get threebet.

Without a read you can probably fold to the threebet or take a look at the turn and see what develops.

#6 10-03-2005, 06:27 PM

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Don't know that you can. You've got plenty of odds to call on the flop and the turn, and then the river is one of those "well I only have to win 1 in 11.75" times.

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you like the flop raise or no?

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No sir, I don't like it. He's betting into a preflop raiser. He might as well have the K taped to his forehead.

Infact, I misoverestimated our flop outs, you can probably fold on the spot.

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I'd tape QJ to his head, followed by KT, then K9.
KJ or KQ takes nuts to 3 bet into a PFR. But not out of the realm of possibility.

The raise on the flop, I don't like. The only thing it gives you is limited information - you got it - you're beat.

I think you've got 3 outs, if your lucky. I'd feel comfortable folding to the 3 bet.

Yes. Fold the river. You're not winning 1:11 times.

RiverDood · #7 10-03-2005, 06:31 PM

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Second orbit, no reads yet. I'm concerned about the flop raise. When I get 3bet I think i need to call and see the turn since the pot is pretty big and I pick up a gutshot so now I need to see the river (5 outs + gutshot = 9 outs, but probably less, like 5 or 6). On the river i make a crying call thinking maybe he has a worse T but i think i need to fold this, correct?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: kfly is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, MP calls, 1 fold, kfly raises, 1 fold, BB calls, UTG calls, MP calls.

Flop: (8.50 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, MP bets, kfly raises, BB folds, UTG calls, MP 3-bets, kfly calls, UTG calls.

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I don't understand your flop raise here. It's not for value. It's not to protect a potentially best but vulnerable hand. I suppose it's an attempt to price out the draws, but with four players in the hand and all kinds of pair-plus-gutshot possibilities already on the board, you don't really have enough leverage to send them running. It's not even to gain information -- since you learn that MP and UTG like their hands but you decide to stay around anyway.

Seems to me that it just builds a pot for someone else. If the board were a lot less coordinated -- says KT4r, I could see raising and hoping that middle pair was good, or that you could bully a K-rag off his hand at some point.

But this board is just dripping with straight draws, and you're not really well positioned to benefit from that. Instead, a big multiway pot helps AJ, AQ, KQ, KJ, KT, K9, QQ, QJ, QT, Q9, JJ, JT, etc. more than it helps you.

Given how many ways there are to get beat on this hand, I'd try to keep the pot small, hope for an A or T on the turn or river -- and be quite ready to get out if someone else steps up the pace.

#8 10-03-2005, 06:33 PM

Preflop: I don't raise ATo here, I limp. What am I missing? Are you trying to isolate two loose players or something? Or is this a standard raise for you with ATo from MP?

Flop: I like the raise, but wonder about your calling the 3-bet. Both your opponents were unfazed by the pfr's (you) flop raise. Thus, I think you're behind, and very possibly to a straight, leaving you with only about 1 out (the BDSD), which might only give you a chopped pot. If I'm right about the straight, then you don't have odds to call. If I'm wrong, then I think you have correct odds to call the flop 3-bet.

Turn: Once you get your gutshot draw, I agree you have odds to call and see the river.

River: Fold. I don't see how you're ahead at this point.

numeri · #9 10-03-2005, 06:49 PM

A river fold is the way to go. No way you're ahead 1% of the time, much less the ~8% you need.

Flop raise is standard, I think. I'm interested to read other responses, but isn't this classic SSHE? We may not have the best hand, but raising can fold some other hands and improve our equity significantly.

numeri · #10 10-03-2005, 06:52 PM

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Infact, I misoverestimated our flop outs, you can probably fold on the spot.

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Seriously? How many outs do you give here? I think the flop is at least an easy call, but I could be way off.