75-150 Stud Hand: Simple Read or Pot Too Huge To Fold?

[Jeffage]

Here's an interesting 75-150 stud hand I played at the Taj Mahal last night. Suits don't matter in this hand. A deuce brings it in, some small cards fold and the player to my right completes with an ace up. He is not clueless, but is a little loose and goes to the river even when he knows he shouldn't. I am next with (Q,A) A and make it 150 to go. A solid player with an 8 up coldcalls (8's are live). Folded back to the gentleman on my right who now makes it 225. I decide to cap it and both of my opponents calls. On 4th, the boards are:

Loose Guy (x,x) A 7

Me (A,Q) A 3

Solid Player (x,x) 8 5

The loose guy bets, I raise, solid calls, loose calls.. Just to see his reaction, I ask solid if he's waiting for 5th street. He doesn't flinch. Then he says something like, "you both have aces, I love my pocket kings here," but it sounds bullshitty. I mean, let's look at it from his perspective. It's very obvious both me and the other guy have a pair of aces to start. And he is taking heat like a demon. I immediately put him on rolled trips b/c I can't think of any other hand that makes sense. Maybe you just had to be there. But this isn't someone that's going to throw around a lot of money with pocket 3's or some nonsense and it just seemed like he was in a dream scenario where we were betting his hand for him. Good player's only possible flaw is he might take tons of heat on 3rd with something like 678 suited or something. If that's the case, he's now open, but that seems unlikely. Anyway, on 5th street, the boards are:

Loose (x,x) A 7 J

Me (A,Q) A 3 10

Solid (x,x) 8 5 9

Loose player now bets again. What's your play and line for 6th.

A) Fold and watch sixth street on the sidelines as you cry into your Corona
B) Call, expecting to get raised and pay off like a slot machine b/c the pot is enormous
C) Call and fold to a raise by solid
D) Raise to put max pressure on solid in case you misread his hand since the pot is so big...if he coldcalls, bet 6th and fold to a raise
-If solid reraises, fold
-Another option if solid coldcalls is to check-fold sixth, but that's hard.

Anyway, interesting hand, results later and I want all comments inc. flaming how I played the hand b/c I'm not sure I'm happy with it.

Jeff

[mscags]

If you truely believe he is rolled and that the other guy has aces too, than I think you have to let go of it. You're drawing dead. If he really is solid, than rolled up is about the only thing that makes sense here. I probably raise on fifth just to make sure. If he stays in than I'm probably crying and folding sixth. JMHO though.

[Alex/Mugaaz]

I've been thinking about this hand for the last 10 mins and come to the conclusion that I have no idea either, but think that pocket kings aren't as unlikely as you think. So this reply is meaningless.

[Michael Emery]

[ QUOTE ]
It's very obvious both me and the other guy have a pair of aces to start. And he is taking heat like a demon. I immediately put him on rolled trips b/c I can't think of any other hand that makes sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
If he really is solid, than rolled up is about the only thing that makes sense here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does he have to be rolled if hes a soild player? Any pair on his end is a favorite over two pairs of dead aces on third. I would think a soild player might just know this and act accordingly. If your results were it turned out he was rolled, well, that sucks. But plenty of soild players just have lone 8's or the like here. With that said, I believe the play on fifth is to raise if hes capable of letting any lone pair go. Given he has taken a lot of heat thus far and I'm not sure he is. But it would be tough to cold call $300 with just a lone pair at this point. He has to know hes drawing very slim if either of you hold aces up. I think its worth the raise. The other aces is very well just betting out thinking he has you outkicked with the jack.

Mike Emery

[Jeffage]

[ QUOTE ]
But plenty of soild players just have lone 8's or the like here.

[/ QUOTE ]

On 3rd, he is facing a completion and a raise when he calls 150 cold. At this point there is no way he could know we both have aces. In fact, it's likely the first guy could raise with buried sevens or 3 big cards into my ace and only one pair of aces is out. Is coldcalling with 889 really automatic here? Or would he have to have something like 888 or 88A to continue?

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Also, say you did raise 5th and he coldcalls. What is your plan for 6th?

Thanks,
Jeff

[Bartholow]

You seem to think it would be wrong of him to "take heat" with 678s on 3rd. His equity would be over 40%, often as much as 43%, vs 2 pairs of aces. It's true that even a hand like 887 with a 2-flush (maybe more likely something like (99)8 with 2 flush) could be ahead vs. two players with aces. I think it's at least as likely that he has some sort of drawing hand as 888, just because there are only 3 ways to have 888.

That said, this is a tough spot. Assuming solid player does have something besides 888, the 5 and 9 have probably at least somewhat helped his hand, and if our read is in fact that the loose player has aces, our hand is pretty dead. If your non-ace cards are live I think I might raise one more time, otherwise it's a little tempting to just fold. In the heat of battle I would be more likely to call than fold though. So I guess I'm leaning towards one more raise, and then be prepared to let it go if things get ugly.

(Once again we could use a real stud stove.)

[mscags]

[ QUOTE ]
Any pair on his end is a favorite over two pairs of dead aces on third

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a good point. I didn't think of it that way

[Bartholow]

[ QUOTE ]
Any pair on his end is a favorite over two pairs of dead aces on third.

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition to Jeff's point about him not knowing they both have aces when he calls on third, I don't think this is entirely true. A pair with an unrelated kicker is not a favorite. If the kicker is suited and connected on the other hand, it's a decent favorite. Of course knowing any other dead cards would help.

[Jeffage]

He can't know we both have aces when its 150 to him. It's more likely in this game and the way it was playing that one of us has aces and one doesn't. Also, I don't think it would be wrong to play the 678s, butI just think it's sorta unlikely this guy would do it. Hard to explain why really, I guess you just would have to know who I'm talking about.

Same thing with my read about the rolled up. I can't exactly quantify it, just that this was first instinct with how the hand was played and the type of heat he was taking And usually, my first instinct is correct. Also note if I was wrong and he started with a 3 straight, I'm now drawing dead bc he made that hand as well.

But then again, if I'm wrong entirely and this guy just made a bad initial call on 3rd and got trapped on the installments, I can make a bad laydown. And this pot seems like it should be worth about a used Saturn or so. There is more to this hand and I will reveal it once we get past 5th street.

Jeff