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| View Poll Results: Do you think I should I change it? | |||
| Yes |
   
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49 | 85.96% |
| No |
  
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8 | 14.04% |
| Voters: 57. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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#1
10-02-2005, 02:40 PM
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Do You Like 22 Here?
Trying to settle a debate. Assuming raising is not an option.
UTG is 47/4/.4 62 hands Rest are unknowns. Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em Preflop: Hero is BB with 22. UTG raises, MP calls, CO 3-bets, Button calls, SB folds, Hero ? 
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#2
10-02-2005, 02:58 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
I think this is a bad spot for this hand even without knowing UTG's stats (who may reraise, likely even). You are not getting a particularly good price to hit your set, and considering the preflop action you will sometimes get outsetted which will be very costly. On the flop you have to hit to continue while they don't.
It is also a bad number of opponents for this hand.
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#3
10-02-2005, 03:34 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
if UTG does not cap: 13.66sb's-2sb's odds reduces to 6.83-1 odds, and a clear call with 22.
if UTG does cap: 17.66sb's-3sb's odds reduces to 5.89-1 odds, i think that a call is okay there too, but much closer.
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#5
10-02-2005, 04:04 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
This really depends on how often our bottom set wins at showdown. It should do so less often than "normal" simply because (1) it is the lowest possible set, meaning it is subject to more set over set situations; and (2) the pot will be really big allowing weaker draws than normal to see a turn and in some cases the river.
If we think our set holds up 55% of the time, it is looking really dicey. If it holds up 60% of the time, it is less dicey / starting to get into my comfort zone. If it holds up 65% of the time, it is pretty comfortable for me. If it holds up 70% of the time, I think it is easy. (FWIW, I think we need to make up 8.5BBs, 7+BBs, 6+BBs, and 5BBs, respectively.) Note that factor 2 above (chasing in a big pot) makes it easier to make up these bets, which partially offsets the reduced win percentage expectations. I don't have a good sense of how often it will hold up, but think it's somewhere around 65%-70% of the time, meaning I am pretty comfortable calling here.
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#6
10-02-2005, 04:20 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
our house i just want you to realize that your opinion on this matter contradicts twoplustwo standards. 5:1 odds is way more than enough to try and flop a set and we have more than that in this hand. as long as you realize that your opinion is against twoplustwo standards and still disagree then thats fine.
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#7
10-02-2005, 04:28 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
[ QUOTE ]
our house i just want you to realize that your opinion on this matter contradicts twoplustwo standards. 5:1 odds is way more than enough to try and flop a set and we have more than that in this hand. as long as you realize that your opinion is against twoplustwo standards and still disagree then thats fine. [/ QUOTE ] Hey TStoneMBD -- I agree that the standard around here is 5:1 or so, but I think this one needs a bit more thought, primarily for two reasons: (1) we have reason to believe that PPs may be out slightly more often than normal and we're holding the lowest possible set-maker; and (2) 5:1 when it is a bet or a raise to you is different than 5:1 when it is 3 bets to you -- the "bets" you need to make up post-flop in implied odds when you hit in order to make the under-pot-odds pre-flop call are multiples of bets instead of single bets (i.e., for example, assuming we need 10:1 implied to call and we never win unimproved -- I'm just using this as a nice round number and assumption, not as a suggestion -- then calling a raise getting 5:1 in the BB means we only need to make up 5 sbs post-flop; calling a cap getting 5:1 in the BB means we need to make up 15 sbs post flop, even though we have the same pre-flop odds).
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#8
10-02-2005, 04:59 PM
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Re: Do You Like 22 Here?
I don't know what you mean by '2+2 standards'. If you are implying that you need 5:1 on deuces no matter what the situation is, that's just plain ignorant and doesn't conform to 2+2 at all. Each situation is unique and needs to be evaluated at the time presented. Do you honestly believe that 22 with 5 players in $1/$2 is exactly the same as 22 with 5 players in $100/$200? 2+2 would never condone that sort of thinking.
Personally, my cutoff for 5 handed deuces is at the 5/10 level. I play 10/20 regularly now and have played up to 30/60, but no higher. I believe (and it's just an opinion) that once you go to 10/20 and above, the likelihood of other pairs being against you becomes strong enough that deuces go down signifcantly in value. The more pairs that are in the hand, the worse deuces will do. Not only that, the caliber of post flop play will also dictate how well deuces will hold up.
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