QJs with a solid read

[ajmargarine]

Not sure if I like how I played this hand. You tell me. I don't remember if I got sucked out on or got outplayed by a calling station, but I lost a medium-sized pot the previous hand and have a stack of ~$73, and villian covers. I've played with villian in this hand alot, and am over 80% sure that his odd-sized PFR from the BB means he has a smallish pp, 22-88. (Table is also full of passive calling stations)

.50/$1 NLHE Full Table, but we are 6-handed.

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
1 fold, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, Button calls $1, SB folds, Villian raises to $7.80, Hero calls, Button folds.

Flop: ($16.35) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villian bets $14, Hero calls $14.

Turn: (~$43) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villian checks, Hero pushes his last $51, Villian folds.

I know he knows I am capable of bluffing at the pot with air here, so I pushed. What can I do here on the end to extract more: donkbet? check behind? or was the push fine? When he checks, I'm pretty sure my read is right and he has something like 44. Also, preflop and flop comments welcome.

[crosse91]

bet 1/2 pot maybe? if he has small pp then he's folding here or river w/o hitting. Unless he's me and he'll reraise allin.

[swolfe]

$26 on the turn, $25 on the river

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
$26 on the turn, $25 on the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Meh. I was thinking more like $9 on the turn and $10 on the river might be the only way I get anymore out of him. Had to look like I was bluffing somehow...maybe that's just not possible on this board and given his hand.

[djoyce003]

Once you call the flop bet, 22-88 is going to tread VERY lightly. Since you are fairly confident in your read, You have the villain drawning to 2 outs and don't have to worry about the flush draw. I'd check behind on the turn and make it look like you are drawing at the flush. He'll probably lead the river unless the board double pairs....then you can raise his river bet he may or may not call the raise tho.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
villain drawning to 2 outs.... I'd check behind on the turn..

[/ QUOTE ]

[nit] 4 outs, 2 to match his pp and 2 9's [/end nit]

I seriously seriously considered checking behind here. But, I was close to being sure that he would check to me on the river anyways, not betting unless he boated up.

[djoyce003]

true...but he might call a smallish river bet after you checked as long as no flush hits.

[The_Bends]

I dont really like your preflop call given your read. If he does have a small PP thats going to leave you guessing as to whether he's hit a set or not on a lot of flops with no real potential to get money out of him if you hit. You called his raise so he's got to be thinkning broadway cards which means he'll shut down if the flop comes high (as actually happened). If the flop comes low say 4 7 Q then you dont' know where you are. He won't take heavy action with the queen there unless he has a set in which case you're screwed. In addition if your read is off and he actually has strong broadway cards then you still can't push the queen because your kicker is too weak.

In the end you've left yourself needing to hit a flush or straight against a set in order to stck him which is obviously a bad state of affairs.

So if we can conclude that in terms of playing for stacks your way behind then we just need to look at playing for the smaller pots.

Flop one - flop misses under

You have to fold because he's etiher got you out paired or overcarded

Flop two -flop misses over A K 7

It might scare him but you're in no mans land too

Flop three - flop hits you

You'll probably take a small pot.

I'd probably score all the potential options at about equal because he's winning pre flop but you have some fold equity on high board.

To conclude this rambling analysis you're about equal on the small pots and way behind on the big pots which adds up to calling a 7xbb raise being a bad idea, even with position and information.

[djoyce003]

yes but if you can put him specifically on smaller cards you are likely to take away any pot from him when the flop comes with any broadway cards, not just the ones you have....in which case you are a big favorite over him. If you face stiff action assume he has the set and be done with it...