What do you think will be next bull sector?

#1 09-26-2005, 11:12 AM

like technology 96-96 to 2000
Real Estate 2001-2005
Energy 2004-?

Any others you think will be good in the next 5 yrs?

Degen · #2 09-26-2005, 12:01 PM

i think the real estate market will crash in that time...and a fortune will be made by many snapping up forclosures as all of these ARM's raise people's mortgage payments while the market strips them of any and all equity they have

squiffy · #3 09-26-2005, 08:46 PM

Good question. I am terrible at guessing the next bull market and won't even try.

But in the next 5 years big pharma will rise again. MRK and PFE.

If TASR beats the litigation problems, it could be another MO.

F and GM will recover eventually. Auto manufacturers are highly cyclical. But I don't know how to predict the next cycle.

AVP looks low. Have bought a bit. Though it might fall more before it recovers

r3vbr · #4 09-27-2005, 01:22 AM

Ford is better than GM

#5 09-27-2005, 04:41 AM

I wouldn't bet on a particular sector, but the overall Japanese market will probably be hot in the next 5 years. Hard and soft commodities should also remain quite strong in the coming years.

squiffy · #6 09-27-2005, 06:30 AM

Yes. That's true now. But sometimes the company that look's worse now, and can be purchased at a cheaper price, is the better long-term investment.

When Pepsi is low and Coke is high, sometimes Pepsi is the better investment, if you believe a talented CEO can turn things around.

But I think GM has a long way to go and has huge pension problems. At some point it could be a great buy. BUt predicting when that will be is tricky.

It may be that GM will be so bad for so long that F will be the better buy.

But if F is such a great opportunity, why is Carl Icahn buying huge amounts of GM stock. Ever think about that. He sees opportunity in GM.

#7 09-27-2005, 08:32 AM

GM will be filing for bankruptcy in the next 5-10 thanks to unions, healthcar, and a poor product.

squiffy · #8 09-30-2005, 05:36 AM

That's what they said about Chrysler.

It might go bankrupt. Or the government might bail it out. Or the pensions might be reduced. Or the government pension insurance fund might bail it out.

Hard to say. There are huge political problems with letting major companies go bankrupt. Though from the standpoint of pure economics, it is probably better to let companies that have been poorly run, go under.