What did we learn: Week Three

[jedinite]

Post your thoughts and conclusions from Week Three. I think this is one of the most important things we can colaborate on: what lessons did we learn, in terms of evaluating future performance:

Monday night pending, of course, but here's some of what I picked up watching all the games this weekend:

Specific to my picks (2-2 this week losing Tampa & Dallas):

Tampa Bay @ Green Bay: Green Bay is in for a long season. Favre is making way too many mistakes - if he continues to turn the ball over the Packers are going to be in real trouble. Tampa looked solid but the defense didn't perform to the level expected - they still should have been able to cover the six, so I'm pretty happy about the analysis that led me to pick Tampa. This was a close game that could have gone either way - Tampa was up by four most of the way and could have very easily been a push.

Vikings vs New Orleans: key here was Min opening up the running game. Moore will likely retain the starting job, he's a decent fantasy pickup if he's still free in your league. With the running game open, Culpepper was finally able to make a decent impact. Look for the Vikings to get on a roll from here out - especially if they're playing teams who are weak against the run. Culpepper's #1 receiver in Burleson looks like he's out until week 6, but once he's back they should be in pretty good shape. However, Vikes lines won't likely be as one-sided as they were this week.

Dallas at Frisco: Felt confident in this analysis even after the fact: considering that the Cowboys put up 34 points. Dallas offense looked very solid, well balanced. Bledsoe is a suprise at QB, putting up solid results and making few mistakes. Julius Jones is performing better than expected, even with all the preseason hype that went his direction. Biggest thing I took from this game: Dallas has serious problems in the secondary. Even SanFran was able to torch them deep - serious mismatches with small cornerbacks getting beat very very badly. From a fantasy standpoint, see if you can start a wide receiver against the Dallas defense. From a betting perspective, the weak Dallas pass defense means that good passing teams should shred them, probably more than public perception will show. Especially teams playing from behind (like SF this week) with any sort of passing attack. Look for teams with decent passing threats to cover down the road where Dallas might be a favorite.

Cleveland @ Indy - well, its unlikely we're going to see spreads this one-sided with Indy again. Its pretty obvious now that the Indy defense is for real, and that Peyton isn't concerned in the slightest about his numbers, only winning games. Look for Edge to have a much bigger year than expected, and Peyton to underperform dramatically from last year's highs. Look for the Colts to win a lot of games this year - with the strong defense and a potent offense they're a real force to be reckoned with. They've played consistent ball control offense so keep an eye on unders and situations where the Colts are favored but against teams who can cover.

Other games:

Cincy @ Chicago: Cincy has done a phenominal job of creating turnovers so far. This has been the gateway to their sucess. Look for matchups with turnover happy teams down the road, giving those extra possessions to such a potent offensive threat should result in a lot of "extra" scoring. For the Bears, Kyle Orton is going to continue to turn the ball over a lot this year. Bears defense looked good but not great against the best offense they'd faced to date.

Oakland @ Philly: McNabb certainly looks like he's hampered by his injuries. While the Eagles are still a potent team, I'll continue to look for the Eagles to underperform against teams they should beat badly. The Raiders are dramatically underperforming so far this year - both Moss and Porter aren't having anywhere near the years expected of them. However, the Raiders at 0-3 are going to be a dangerous team, so I look for them to be playing agressively the next two weeks. Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan. Look for the Raiders to under-achieve in terms of public perception of points scored.

More later if I've got time, while the games are still fresh...

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ] Green Bay is having problems on both sides of the line. This is really leading to their troubles. Ahman Green looks like crap. Favre has really been playing well, the team is just too bad to overcome his mistakes.

Tampa Bay is really confusing to me right now. Cadillac is running well, but I worry about if he can take the pounding. He wasn't even playing full time in college. The Bucs defense looks like, well the Bucs defense. You know how to beat them, but not a lot of teams can. I'm wondering how long it will be before Griese wakes up and goes back to his old self.

[ QUOTE ]
Vikings vs New Orleans

[/ QUOTE ]
I posted in the start of the year "When should you start fading the Saints" The answer is right now. I don't think they win another game until that first game at LSU. Their defense is weak against the run. They have problems with concentration and giving up big plays. They just look like a team that is tired and worn down.

The Vikings are still bad. I love Mewelde Moore (have since I had him for three games last year on my fantasy team) I think he is the best running back on that team. The problem is how will they run against a solid run defense? Their O-line is not giving Culpepper time. His fumbling problem is really going to cause them some problems down the road. This team is going to struggle to win 7 or 8 games.

[ QUOTE ]
Dallas at Frisco

[/ QUOTE ] The Cowboys make me scratch my head. They look like one of those teams that plays to their competition. These are good teams to fade when they are giving points. Julius Jones is another guy I'm not sure can make it through a whole season of pounding.

San Fran looks like they will be in some games this year. It is just a matter of finding games where other teams will take them lightly.

[ QUOTE ]
Cleveland @ Indy

[/ QUOTE ] I give up on Indy. You have to think at some point the offense stops sleep walking and just starts to run up some points. If they don't they will be in trouble, because that defense will not be able to play that well against the run all year.

I like Cleveland alot this year. Romeo is doing a good job and I think they won't give up on him. Which makes them better than last year.

[ QUOTE ]
Cincy @ Chicago

[/ QUOTE ]
The Bengals defense was really playing the pass well. I know it was Kyle Orton, but Tory James has been good for the past few years and Deltha O'Neal looks like he stoppped taking smack or whatever he was doing. This team is going to get rolled by the Steelers. They won't be able to beat a team that runs the ball well and doesn't turn it over and that plays good D. The Bears gave them the ball 6 times and they were only able to score on 3 of them. That's pretty impressive by the Bears D.

The Bengals offense is real good and will score a lot of points this year. In other news, the sky is blue.

The Bears will win games this year when their defense can generate good field position for the offense. When Orton is forced to go the length of the field he will struggle. The kid has some balls though. And if the Bears just had a quarterback that could do that last year they would have won 3-4 more games.

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland @ Philly

[/ QUOTE ] The Eagles look like thier old self. They will find ways to win, but they will only roll bad teams. Reid still throws the ball too much. But, their defense is real good and is improved against the run.

Oakland just plays a nasty schedule and they are not good enough on defense to stop anyone. For all of the bitching I think they have looked good on offense. Collins has been smart and isn't forcing too many balls which has lead to a lot of interceptions in the past. He kind of looks like Randel Cunningham when he "figured it out" in MIN.

[ QUOTE ]



Especially teams playing from behind (like SF this week) with any sort of passing attack.



[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed you said that San Fran was able to pass cause they were playing from behind this was not the case, Dallas scored 15 4th quarter points to win...it was Dallas playing from behind not San Fran.

[Page Jacobson]

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Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this. The Raiders had 2nd and 1 once and gave it to Jordan up the middle, he decided to break it outside and was dumped for a 3 yard loss and there was a hole for him inside.

I'm not a fan of Collins either. Also with players like Moss on the team I can see chemistry falling apart. I think Oakland is a play against.

[kdog]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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Turner is demonstrating that he's developing another solid rusher in Jordan



[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree too. Jordan had something like 19 yards on 16 carries yesterday and really hasn't shown much in any game yet. I have real doubts he's more than a decent backup.

[MookieBlaylock]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ] Green Bay is having problems on both sides of the line. This is really leading to their troubles. Ahman Green looks like crap. Favre has really been playing well, the team is just too bad to overcome his mistakes.



[/ QUOTE ]

Favre hasnt played that well this year. He is still trying to force the ball into impossibly tight openings. He has put up some pretty good stats, but only because the Packers have been trailing since week one and they have been forced to throw constantly. Green has looked bad, but again, when you team is constantly trailing you cant establish the run.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
Favre hasnt played that well this year. He is still trying to force the ball into impossibly tight openings.

[/ QUOTE ] Sorry if you have been watching too much of the media blowing Favre, but this has been his career.

[Sluss]

[ QUOTE ]
I disagree too. Jordan had something like 19 yards on 16 carries yesterday and really hasn't shown much in any game yet. I have real doubts he's more than a decent backup.


[/ QUOTE ] 275 total yards in three weeks. Two touchdowns. Before a tough week vs. the Eagles he was averaging 4 yards a carry.

[FishNChips]

Nice post Jedi.

Things I learned:

1 - I'm an idiot and I'm a member of the BSP group. The small deposit I made on Pinny would have been better being burned to warm my bathroom in December.

2 - We still don't know who the real Dolphins are, we still don't know who the real panthers are, we don't know who the real Chargers are (as a fan I sure as hell hope its the week3 version!)

3 - The Patriots are not to be messed with. Its hard to put on paper why they are so good, but they are. They lost Harrison and made a comeback after that. Wow! Cowher is a bad game management coach.

4 - The Chiefs really are bad on the road, The Broncos are REALLY good at home.

5 - The Bears probably have enough to win ATS when they play mediocre or bad offensive teams, but they are going to struggle against anyone that can put points on the board.

6 - Cincy still hasn't convinced me. They've played 3 bad teams. I liked the previous poster's (or maybe another thread) comments about turnovers for the Bengals and how they aren't likely to continue at their current pace (+12 or something like that after 3 games is crazy!). I'll give them a close look this week, but I'm still not convinced.

That is all I claim to know,
FishNChips
1-6-1 (-$1600) in 3+1 challenge
0-3 (-3units) in actual wagers

[Webster]

[ QUOTE ]
Tampa Bay @ Green Bay

[/ QUOTE ]

Favre is playing like he always has. Green has no "O" line yet and are still coming togather. The "D" stopped the TB running game and actually did a good job against the pass.

The only reason they lost was because of kicking.

With THAT said. This is a classic GB team that will improve as the year goes on. You might not like Sherman but the guy does have a knack for putting a team together AS the year goes on. He's good at moving players around.

BTW - they beat the spread - moral victory :-) for me!