#1
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[30/3] AK in the big blind on the bubble
UTG is very aggressive (35/27/3). I have no fold equity and the SB is a very very short stack.
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (4 handed) converter Hero (t1400) UTG (t3200) Button (t2895) SB (t505) Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ? |
#2
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Re: [30/3] AK in the big blind on the bubble
i think that pushing is wrong. you're 66% vs a random hand, so maybe 60% against his range. i can't do icm in my head, but i'm guessing that's a bad gamble for you.
so the choices are call or fold. if you call, i think your line has to be check if you hit and push if you miss. he'll be in there with some junky cards, so a lot of times you'll both miss, you bet, and he has to fold. very roughly: you miss 2/3. of that, he will fold 1/2. so you make a pair 1/3, he folds to your push 1/3, and 1/3 he calls and you usually have 25% to win, but sometimes you're ahead. i think this is the first time i've advocated a sng, but i'd do it. |
#3
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Re: [30/3] AK in the big blind on the bubble
Well, it's not a stop-n-go if you're checking when you miss.
The call is an interesting idea, but I think it doesn't quite get there. 2/3 of the time, you are down to 800 chips with this line. You are middle stack, will have >8BB after folding, and have a hand that is great for pushing but not very good for calling a push (which is essentially what you would be doing here if you don't fold.) Fold. I misread the post above -- now I see what you are saying -- you check when you *hit*, hoping to check-raise. Maybe this is a good strategy after all. But it still would have trouble beating a fold, I think. |
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