A good thread on blind stealing profitablity

[BluEsiNsOuL]

I don't think this thread has been discussed here, if I'm wrong, please delete this.

Link to the thread in Small Stakes

For those who don't steal enough, this thread let you realize how much you've been missing.

I'll post my small sample 8K 1/2 6-Max number.

"chance to steal and raised" = +$567.85 on 373 times
"chance to steal and called" = -11.75 on 10 times
"chance to steal and folded" = $0 on 827 times

TOTAL = ($556.10 on 1210 times)/2 = +.460 BB/opportunity

Att. To Steal Blands: 36.42

I'm running good, but I definitely do better now on BUTTON than before when my ASB% was around 20.

If you're playing at a tight table that folds easily, what is the worst hand/earliest position you steal from ??

How often can you get away with it ?

[BluEsiNsOuL]

I don't know if I'm in a good position to give any advice yet, but if people sitting to my left are tight, I will steal with hands like Jxo. Maybe any two cards in some extreme cases. I won't do any "pure steal" attempt beyond CO. It's pretty much read-dependent and looks like I can get away with it a lot of times.

[Felipe]

This isn't good strategy at typical games .5/1 and under, IMO.

Raise maybe with a KJ, K9, QT types of hands, or A9, AT, other than that, expect callers, and maybe flop bettors.

[tassie]

Interesting stat. Mine is only about 0.02.
Steal about 28% of the time. This is over the last couple of months about 30 000 hands

Times Net
362 372.22 Raise
15 (1.50) Call
843 (1) Folded


PLaying 1/2. It is only in the month or so that I have actively been stealing blinds.

[Fantam]

I have not read your thread yet, but I will.

Anyway I think blind stealing depends on the tables and the limits that you are playing at.

If I am playing at .50/1.00 and I think the players to my left are tight, I will open up my stealing standards.

When I play at .05/.10, I dont try to steal very much.

[chopchoi]

The problem with bind stealing, as I see it, is that it turns the and into a crap shoot.

Everyone is suspicious of an open-raise from the CO or button, and this makes them play more aggressively.

Here's an example of a situation I oten find myself in when I go for the steal:

I raise from the button with 96o, BB calls.

Flop: 2, 5, 7. BB checks, and I bet my gutshot, hoping he'll fold.

Turn, a ten. BB checks. Many players will call a flop bet in a heads up situation with nothing, because they figure you missed and are just making a continuation bet. They think they can steal the pot from you by donk-betting the turn, or by letting you check the the turn and betting the river. So you fire again, and he check raises.

You just lost 2 1/2 big bets on a hand you would usually fold. and the thing is, I know from all the times I open raise from LP with a real hand and go to show-down, that a player check-raise-bluffing you on the turn after a steal is very common. I see players pulling all kinds of bluffs after I try to steal, and I can't tell if they have a hand or not.

[numeri]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're playing at a tight table that folds easily, what is the worst hand/earliest position you steal from ??

How often can you get away with it ?

[/ QUOTE ]
A key here is seat selection. You want tight players on your left who will be less likely to play.

Other than that, the basic principle in middle-late position is to raise if you're entering a pot. That doesn't mean you raise all the time or with any playable hand, though. If I have 77 in MP3 and I'm first in, I'll raise. Limping would be horrible. Same idea for A8s. It's not a hand I'd raise in EP or raise after 3 limpers, but if I'm first in from the CO, it's an easy raise.

There's no specific answer to your question, but it's a good question. I hope this helps a bit.

At these loose tables, I will raise (instead of call) when I'm first in and I've got a hand I wanted to play. Tight blinds fold--that's great. The long-term cash is from the defenders of junk, especially when they play their weak aces and kings.

Today I watched a guy defend by raising. Then the flop came, and he open-folded. Genius move!

[Aaron W.]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem with bind stealing, as I see it, is that it turns the and into a crap shoot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I assume you mean something like "turns the game into a crap shoot". No, it does not. Does it increase the number of marginal situations? Yup. But if you learn to play profitably postflop, you win far more than you lose.

[ QUOTE ]
Everyone is suspicious of an open-raise from the CO or button, and this makes them play more aggressively.

[/ QUOTE ]

Reads help. It's easier to steal from tight players and passive players than loose players and aggressive players. Pick easy targets first.

[ QUOTE ]
Here's an example of a situation I oten find myself in when I go for the steal:

I raise from the button with 96o, BB calls.

Flop: 2, 5, 7. BB checks, and I bet my gutshot, hoping he'll fold.

Turn, a ten. BB checks. Many players will call a flop bet in a heads up situation with nothing, because they figure you missed and are just making a continuation bet. They think they can steal the pot from you by donk-betting the turn, or by letting you check the the turn and betting the river. So you fire again, and he check raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

The two bolded parts are two things that you need to work on if you want to steal profitably. If villain is the type who is able to play back, you need a hand that has some showdown value because you're going to go to showdown more often.

Against a player who is capable of check-raise bluffing (reads help), you should be taking this free card. You've got a draw that he won't be able to put you on, and (given that he might check-raise bluff you) your pair outs are also likely to be good. Furthermore, this will invite him to bet into you on the river, where you can call/raise depending on what card you hit and your assessment of his ability to call the river raise with worse hands.

[ QUOTE ]
You just lost 2 1/2 big bets on a hand you would usually fold. and the thing is, I know from all the times I open raise from LP with a real hand and go to show-down, that a player check-raise-bluffing you on the turn after a steal is very common. I see players pulling all kinds of bluffs after I try to steal, and I can't tell if they have a hand or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

Get reads. They help.