Bengals Season Win Prop Bet - O/U at 11

[TomCollins]

I say under. I don't think they will win 12 this year, although their schedule is very favorable with Baltimore, Cleveland, and the NFC North.

[TheRover]

Before the season I took under 8.5 [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[Gramps]

While everyone may be jumping on the Carson Palmer bandwagon, throwing out the Peyton Manning comparisons, etc., the real reason the Bengals are 3-0 (winning all games comfortably) is that they're +12 in turnovers in 3 games (leading the NFL by a huge margin). That's absolutely sick. The Browns, Vikings, and Bears were all just handing the ball over willfully to the Bengals.

They were +4 for the whole season last year. Maybe you can argue Palmer will be able to take care of the ball better this year, etc., but IMO the public's opinion of the Bengals is getting really inflated right about now (and their remaining schedule isn't soft). Going 9-4 (or better) the rest of the year seems somewhat unlikely. Especially since they haven't been tested at all yet, and haven't proved their ability to bounce back/play through adversity. 7 wins or less definitely seems more likely to happen.

[TomCollins]

7 wins or less TOTAL or for the rest of the season?

You do realize how bad the NFC North is, right?

LOL, not that bad, Tampa will take two from cincy

[Ken_AA]

this is what they have left.... Did i miss a joke about this NFC North thing???

also these are my predictions......

4 Sun, Oct 2 Houston Tickets CBS 1:00 PM WIN
5 Sun, Oct 9 at Jacksonville Tickets ESPN 8:30 PM TOSS UP
6 Sun, Oct 16 at Tennessee Tickets CBS 1:00 PM WIN
7 Sun, Oct 23 Pittsburgh Tickets CBS 1:00 PM TOSS UP
8 Sun, Oct 30 Green Bay Tickets FOX 1:00 PM WIN
9 Sun, Nov 6 at Baltimore Tickets CBS 1:00 PM WIN
10 BYE WEEK
11 Sun, Nov 20 Indianapolis Tickets CBS 1:00 PM After a Bye, Toss Up
12 Sun, Nov 27 Baltimore Tickets CBS 1:00 PM Win
13 Sun, Dec 4 at Pittsburgh Tickets CBS 1:00 PM Loss
14 Sun, Dec 11 Cleveland Tickets CBS 1:00 PM Win
15 Sun, Dec 18 at Detroit Tickets CBS 4:05 PM Win
16 Sat, Dec 24 Buffalo Tickets CBS 1:00 PM Win
17 Sun, Jan 1 at Kansas City Tickets CBS 1:00 PM Loss

I think 12 wins is pretty close.

Ken

[TomCollins]

The Bengals (and every other AFC North team) play the NFC North, the biggest joke conference in football. If the best team in that division finishes 8-8, I'll be amazed.

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
7 wins or less TOTAL or for the rest of the season?

You do realize how bad the NFC North is, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

Give me a little credit - 11 is the O/U, they're 3-0, so they have to go 7-6 or worse from here on out for the under to win. 8-5 = a push. They'd have to win 9 or more for the under bet to lose.

And playing the NFC North helps their schedule, but is balanced out by some tough non-conference AFC games (Indy, at Jax, at KC).

at Jacksonville
at Tennessee
Pittsburgh (twice)
at Baltimore
Indy at home
at Detroit
at KC

If Cincy goes 4-4 in these games, I'd be very impressed indeed. And if they went 4-4, they'd still have to go 5/5 in the other games. Cincy's the bandwagon the public's jumping on right now, but once their opponents stop literally giving the ball away, reality may set in pretty quickly - good team, not great.

[MyTurn2Raise]

you've convinced me... I'm gonna place a bet on this and ride it with you. Nice research.

[MyTurn2Raise]

[ QUOTE ]
but once their opponents stop literally giving the ball away, reality may set in pretty quickly - good team, not great.

[/ QUOTE ]

isn't there a documented trend of reversion to the mean on team +/- [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]