How bad can a bad streak get?

lskelly · #1 05-04-2003, 08:42 PM

Typically I play low limit hold-em games, were perhaps 4-5 see the flop on the average. Over tens of thousands of hands, I've managed roughly 1.5 Big Bets per Hour, so I'm fairly well convinced I'm in +EV.

Recently however, I had a run over approximately 2000 hands, where 140 Big Bets went up in smoke. In spite of being a net thousands of BB's to the good overall, I was at the point were I was ready to quit. Thankfully, reviewing records to confirm both tens of thousands of hands with a fairly solid plus and finding bigger streaks to the POSITIVE in that amount of time, I hung in there, and the cards turned.

My question is, just how bad can a bad streak run? I used to think of a hundred big bets as being able to withstand the worst of times. That has obviously changed to the point I'm now thinking in terms of 150-175.

Comments welcome,
thank you

Net Warrior · #2 05-04-2003, 09:51 PM

2000 hands is huge. I'd say your game has developed some leaks. My last major downturn was due in large part to a bad run of cards, in part to calling too many turn check-raises with top pair, and in part to occasional tilt due to being on a bad run of cards.

rharless · #3 05-04-2003, 11:19 PM

Here is a link to one of the more popular threads, from three months ago. The thread is mainly about proven winners and losing streaks. Some 2+2ers post losses that are on par with your 140BB.

Running Bad or Playing Badly? (Psychology Forum)

RH

Jimbo · #4 05-04-2003, 11:57 PM

Below are links to two posts that shows you may be underestimating the propensity to run bad for long periods of time.

http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/sho...true#Post64532

http://www.twoplustwo.com/forums/sho...rue#Post156078

lskelly · #5 05-05-2003, 12:06 AM

Jimbo (and Rachele)

Thanks for the links. I was sure I wasn't the first person to ask that.

Bob T. · #6 05-05-2003, 12:13 AM

I think that 150 big bet slides are not uncommon, and for mid stakes players, I think double that happen occasionally.

lskelly · #7 05-05-2003, 12:32 AM

NetWarrior:

There is no question that leaks creeped into my play. Different leaks than yours, but leaks just the same. I did get those bets back, by the way.

Thank you!

bernie · #8 05-05-2003, 10:42 AM

havent read the others yet. it can be worse. your numbers work out to about 50 hours live. which is about 2 weeks. my worst was 7 weeks. and it was pure hell. that was 7 weeks playing 20-30 hours a day 5 days a week.

the swing could also be worse. which is why many use the benchmark of 300 big bets.

just make sure your playing well during these bad runs so as to confirm it's a bad run of cards. during my tour of duty i went through my game with a fine toothed comb. found some minor stuff, but basically had to learn to play through it. and it's true, making it out the other end of a bad streak makes you a much better player.

sounds like you handled it pretty well

remember, it's how one plays through these streaks that determines the type of player you are. everyone is great when theyre winning.

b

Nottom · #9 05-05-2003, 10:50 AM

30hrs/day. Damn thats a lot of poker. [img]/forums/images/icons/blush.gif[/img]

ResidentParanoid · #10 05-05-2003, 12:40 PM

remember, it's how one plays through these streaks that determines the type of player you are. everyone is great when theyre winning.

This is critical. If your play deteriorates because of tilt or bad adjustments, 150 BB of variance can quickly turn into something much worse.

I've had swings of more that 200BB. Don't recall how many hands that was, probably at least 1000 online, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was near 2000.

You will hate the world during this time. Since this is a hobby, I walk away when things get really bad, spend some bankroll and leisure time on the golf course, and then come back when my psychological wounds have healed.