raising pre-flop, then leading out after u miss the flop...

[Dominic]

10-20/20-40

If you raise pre-flop with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ....and you get exactly one or two callers, how often are you leading after a flop that likely missed everyone and it's either checked to you or you're first to act?

(I assume if there's more than 3 players to the flop, you're checking.)

Obviously, this is very dependant on how tight/loose your opponents are, but I'm trying to get a general strategy for this situation (I know, I know - general - yuck.)

Thanks!

[InfernoLL]

[ QUOTE ]
10-20/20-40

If you raise pre-flop with AK, AQ, AJ, KQ....and you get exactly one or two callers, how often are you leading after a flop that likely missed everyone and it's either checked to you or you're first to act?

[/ QUOTE ]

100% of the time.

[TimM]

This is very tough to think about in this way - so many variables. Do you have position on one or both callers? For each one you do, were they a blind or a limper? For each one you don't, what's the weakest hand he would cold-call with and what's the best hand he won't re-raise?

KQ is tricky because technically you are behind any ace.

For the rest, I guess a good first approximation is that each will hit a pair or better about 1/3 of the time on the flop. If they share cards with you or each other, this will be lower, and if no one shares any cards, the chance of one or both of them having paired is higher when you miss. Two additional considerations: 1) They also could have started with a pair, and 2) if not they are more likely to share cards since players will tend to prefer the higher cards. If we just call this all a wash, and stick with our 1/3 estimate, you will be ahead of one opponent about 2/3 of the time, and two opponents about 5/9 of the time (1 - 2/3 * 2/3).