Why are villains so MEAN!? (AKo hand)

DavidC · #1 09-17-2005, 06:14 AM

I'm going to work out my own analysis and post this, to ensure that I made the correct decision here:

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Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $2.
2 folds, MP1 raises, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, 1 fold, Button calls, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, MP1 caps, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Button folds, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (23 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB calls.

Turn: (14 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, MP1 bets, MP2 raises, MP3 folds, Hero???

Pot: 17bb

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The PF cold-caller is 18/11 after 228 hands. On the turn, I'm only afraid of 77 and 66 from him: not much, basically. I'm thinking he's got something closer to jj-88. The table's running pretty hot right now, so that could help his decision towards cold-calling a hand, although with a lag on the table perhaps going to three-bet, it's probably inadvisable for him to do that. If he has the hand range that I put him on, I would like to congradulate him for a great turn raise!

The preflop capper is unknown.

I'm going to be a douche here and say that his cap vs people three-betting him out-of-position range, in a multiway pot, is:

AK, AQs, AA-TT...

AK: 12
AQs: 3
AA: 3
KK: 3
QQ: 6
JJ: 6
TT: 6

My Expected Outs here: 2(12) + 6(3) + 0(3) + 3(3) + 3*6(6) + 0 (2) (just in case that cold-caller really does have quads, which would be really weird):

159 / 38 = ~4.1

[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Arg, not enough odds to call.

Do you guys agree / disagree with this?

(In the actual hand I did call, and I was shown JJ and 99, so it was a good call if I could actually see their cards, but this leads me to believe that I should have folded. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] )

Edit: It would have been SO sweet to have AKs clubs here. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

#2 09-17-2005, 07:23 AM

Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action.

SavageMiser · #3 09-17-2005, 07:32 AM

I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others.

I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby.

DavidC · #4 09-17-2005, 07:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm having a real hard time following your numbers there. Are these taking the other two folks still active into account? Ah, no matter ... you're drawing dead quite a few times and chopping a bunch of others.

I fold this PDQ and sleep like a baby.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only guy left to act is the BB who's not taken into consideration for my outs...

Sorry about the clutter with regards to the numbers.

What does PDQ mean?

DavidC · #5 09-17-2005, 07:38 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Fold. There is still another betting round to lose money on. If we give your overcards a total of 4 outs, you are getting nowhere near the odds. It isn't even a close decision, especially since a call does not close the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm willing to pay quads an additional 2bb on this river without getting upset.

There's a chance that I'll hit my K and lose, or hit my A and lose, to a boat... that would suck.

Getting 8.5:1 I'm pretty close to required odds, but I only think I'll get paid by one guy if an ace hits and I'm good: so, I can't call. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

#6 09-17-2005, 07:51 AM

MP2's Turn raise is fantastic and BB is freakin me out just enough to drop it.

SavageMiser · #7 09-17-2005, 07:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
What does PDQ mean?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pretty damn quick.

Durn kids.