Swing and a Miss!

[J_V]

15/30. Shorthanded game, maybe six players at this time. The game isn't great, but not bad either.

There are two culprits in this hand. One player we'll call GoodPlayer (GP) UTG +3. This player is very good heads up, shorthanded, and in a full game. A very rare breed. He thinks on all streets, psychology is a serious factor when we joust. In the sb bb battles there has been quite a bit of stealing and restealing.

BB is relatively unknown to me.

I open-raise KK, GP 3-bets. (He just reraised me light correctly, because of that I expected him to have a bigger hand than he might normally here since he just showed down light - but so do I.)

BB calls two cold. I cap...all call.

Flop comes K-J-3 w/ two clubs. Checked to me, I bet, GP raises. BB cold-calls. I three bet. GP caps.

Turn is a 6d..I bet. GP raises. BB folds. I reraise. GP calls.

Pretty standard so far, of course I had other option but because the big blind was coldcalling, so jamming the pot fast seemed logical enough. To me the Good Player either has AA or JJ, that's it. For some reason, I just felt he had JJ. My hand really looks like KK so I would expect him to just call with JJ here.

So, the river was a 5h (blank). I go for what seems to be a sure-fire check-raise against either hand (AA,JJ) or so I thought. And as the title suggests...he checks AA behind. In these shorthanded games I often three bet one pair on the turn, so I expected him to bet AA if he had it. But really, I thought he had JJ. If he could have checked that behind then I was flat out owned on the river.

Did I make a mistake here? Remember this is a good player who is aggressive and not afraid to value bet. Since, the river checkraise is so rare, AA would be good here a lot. Or was there just too much action to try for a c/r here?

[Inthacup]

Wow, that is a good player. I guess you have to think about what he thinks you have. Capping preflop, the flop and 3-betting the turn is power, even in a short-handed aggressive game. I'd say he's worried about both JJ and KK after being 3-bet. If he's the player you say he is, I wouldn't put it past him to fold to a river check-raise. I'm not so sure check raising is the best option against *this* opponent. Against your run-of-the-mill shorthanded player, I like it.

[Gabe]

What do you think he thinks you have?

[J_V]

Three kings no doubt, but when I check the river, it's hard not to change that read.

[Robk]

"In these shorthanded games I often three bet one pair on the turn"

Fair enough, but how often do you check on the river after that when a blank falls? Would you check AK on the river here if you had it?

"Good Player either has AA or JJ, that's it. For some reason, I just felt he had JJ."

Strictly mathematically (unless I'm too tired to do this right) this makes him twice as likely to have aces. If you thought he would bet aces then you made a good play. But I think you put in too much action to expect that- you did bet/raise at every opportunity against 2 players- usually this means one pair, no good.

[D.J.]

I think this is a clear bet, I don't think the c/r will work here b/c you re-raised him on the flop and turn. You've got to put him on AK here minimum, and he's got to put you on KJ minimum, I think if maybe the bottom card paired the board, then the c/r might have worked, but after you being so aggressive and appearing so strong, he's probably gunshy w/ his hand b/c he knows he's probably behind. You've got to know he's putting you on something that's probably beating him at that point, and w/ him getting no improvement from the river card, his check behind was good. Bet the river here and JJ will probably raise you again short handed, anything else he'll probably just call.

-D.J.

[andyfox]

Change it to what though? There's nothing you can call with that he can beat, given all the action you have given. The worst I'd put you on would be A-A.

[andyfox]

"If you thought he would bet aces then you made a good play."

Not if he'd fold them to a check-raise, which, being a good player, is certainly more than just a possibility.

[Robk]

That's a pretty big pot to fold aces in! Regardless, I was assuming that he will bet the aces. If he does, then you still get one bet even when he folds to the checkraise.

[Bob T.]

If he had aces, and you knew that he had aces, and he was a good player, shouldn't he have known that you knew he had aces, and therefore there was little value in him betting.