value bet UI AK?

newhizzle · #1 09-16-2005, 09:34 PM

villian is 77/46/2.8

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em (10 handed) link

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, Hero 3-bets, 1 folds, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.00 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP2 calls.

River: (6.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero ...

SGS · #2 09-16-2005, 09:37 PM

If he pays off a lot of rivers I'd go ahead and bet, if he is likely to bet more hands than he would call with I check/call. From his LAG stats it would appear that he would be likely to bet if u check to him.

SGS

Nick C · #3 09-16-2005, 10:50 PM

Against someone who's this much of a maniac, I think I like checking and calling.

One potential advantage of betting, against a more reasonable player, is that you might get him to fold an AK hand you would have chopped with. But I really doubt MP2 has AK, and if by some chance he does, I doubt he's folding it.

Anyway, though, if I did bet, I would call a raise. But I don't think I want to pay two BBs to get to showdown. And it's possible MP2 will auto-bluff if you check to him.

I do think there's a really good chance you have the best hand (though MP2 may be slowplaying, and he may have just made a flush or caught eights up on the river). And I think there's a good chance MP2 will at least call with worse hands. A bet is tempting here and may be best.

In any event, I would be deciding between bet-calling and check-calling.

Edit: Actually, it's pretty unlikely that MP2 caught a flush on the river. I doubt he'd be checking and calling with a flush draw. I think eights up or trip threes, while not especially likely, may be bigger concerns than a flush.

thesharpie · #4 09-17-2005, 01:13 AM

Someone with these stats could have something like A8 or a bunch of pocket pairs, and it will be tough to lay it down against a raise. He also could hold a missed hand that will bluff if checked to. I vote check call.

KDawgCometh · #5 09-17-2005, 01:27 AM

I think the likelyhood of him trying a river bluff is high with those stats. A check/call will definetly induce a bluff from him. This is probably your best bet. If his aggro was a little lower a value bet wouldn't be bad, but I really don't want to have to pay 2BBs on the river here