Bankroll management, bad runs, and other questions

I play 5/10 limit games at my local casino, and i have a few questions about how everyone manages their bankroll.

I know you should have 300bb backing you. unfortunately, i only have(had) 200bb. I recently hit a bad patch of cards for 2 days straight in about 16 hours of playing(Lost every time i hit pocket aces, hours between playable hands, etc)

I now only have 80bb left in my bankroll, and 5/10 is the lowest limit they have at my casino.

Im wondering from experienced people here exactly how long you think this bad run will last? Is it likely ill pull up in my last 80bb and even out, or more likely that I will lose it all? I do not go on tilt and waste money. I play pretty even keel.

Generally, i buy in for $300, and wait till i have $200 profit before leaving(When i stop having good rushes or when the game gets bad)
Last night, i bought in twice. lost $300, rebought then lost $200 and called it a night. Then today, i lost $300, rebought for $200 twice, and i still was having a horrible patch of cards and turns.

Now i have $800 left from my original $2000, and im a little wary of continuing this bad patch. Since i can't reduce the limit to rebuild, im rather at a loss for how i should approach this dry spell and the best manner of rebuilding my roll to a comfortable level.

Just looking for some advice. I have been lurking this forum for a long time so i figured i would make an account and ask the experts.

Thanks

[prayformojo]

Well, looks like you found out why a minimum 300BB bankroll is recommended.

[ QUOTE ]
Im wondering from experienced people here exactly how long you think this bad run will last? Is it likely ill pull up in my last 80bb and even out, or more likely that I will lose it all?

[/ QUOTE ]

Assuming that you actually play winning poker, you are as likely to lose that 80BB as you were when you had 200BB in your roll. A "bad run" is indefinable until it's over, and the cards you have got in the last few days do not affect the cards you will get today.

All logical cockknockery aside, this really depends on whether you're willing to risk losing the rest of your bankroll. If you are a winning player, you're somewhat more likely to have a winning session. However, there is still a significant chance that you will go broke, or lose so much that you will be unwilling to play any more.

A few questions you might ask yourself:

Am I willing to go broke in order to play today?

Will losing 200 or more today cause me to play less than optimally, either by inducing tilt or forcing me to play scared, missing marginal but still profitable opportunities?

Can I say with full confidence that I am actually a winning player, and that I can beat this game consistently in the long run?

Personally, I'd recommend you take that $800, buy into Party, and play some online 1/2 with an adequate bankroll to build yourself back up. And if you're going to start 5/10 again, either start with 300BB, or use your "profit" to increase your roll.

Good luck.

[pzhon]

[ QUOTE ]
I know you should have 300bb backing you.

[/ QUOTE ]
That assumes you win at a good rate. Do you have tens of thousands of hands telling you that you are not only a winning player, but winning at a good rate? If you are a losing player, you can burn through any amount. If your win rate is low, you need a much larger bankroll to maintain a low risk of ruin.

[ QUOTE ]

unfortunately, i only have(had) 200bb.


[/ QUOTE ]
That's only $2000. How does that compare with the cost of your car? Your rent? Your salary? If you don't have the cash on hand, but you can set aside money in the future, you can think of your bankroll as larger than your balance.

[ QUOTE ]

I now only have 80bb left in my bankroll, and 5/10 is the lowest limit they have at my casino.


[/ QUOTE ]
In that case, you don't have the bankroll to play without a significant risk of ruin, even if you are sure you are a solid winner. You can either take your money to a different game (you have the bankroll to play $0.50-$1 online, which is about as tough as $5-$10 live), or keep playing, knowing that you have a significant chance to bust out. If you are winning at a rate of 2 BB/100, your risk of ruin is about 25%. If you are winning at a rate of 1 BB/100, your risk of ruin is about 50%. <font color="white">exp(-2 WR B/SD^2)</font>

Do you have an accurate estimate of your win rate?

[ QUOTE ]
Generally, i buy in for $300, and wait till i have $200 profit before leaving

[/ QUOTE ]
It's all one session. This tactic may make you feel better, but it does not affect your risk of ruin (unless it increases the amount of living expenses you take from your bankroll).

[ QUOTE ]
Im wondering from experienced people here exactly how long you think this bad run will last?

[/ QUOTE ]
I think it will continue for another 80 BB.