Where am I going wrong?? (Low Limit online play)

Ok, so background info: I've been playing limit hold em for 4-5 years (B&M games). My regular B&M game is 12/24 (yes, weird, i know. that's what my local room has.). Been playing online occasionally for 18 months, and have typyically been a break-even or slight LOSING player (I've probably lost between $500 and $1000 over 18 months playing online at various limit levels from 1/2 to 5/10, so not a lot of money over thousands and thousands of hands, but certainly terrible to lose money at all!)

I've recently gotten a lot more serious about it and decided I really need to download Poker Tracker and the other tools and quit monkeying around. I realize that I need over 10,000 hands to account for variance, but I wanted some input thus far, on my first 2,664 hands. My current stats after 2,664 hands playing 1/2, 2/4 and 3/6 limit hold em full ring games at FULL TILT and ULTIMATE BET are as follows:
VP$IP = 13.05
W$WSF = 33.94
W$SD = 57.41
PFR = 5.03

$ TOTAL = (-$224.75)
BB/100 = (-1.65)

...So looks like I'm continuing my losing ways! I'm totally lost here, I can't figure out where the hole in my game is. I realize that my VP$IP is a LITTLE low than most would hope for (15-17.5 is optimal, yeah?), and my PFR is a little passive (7% would be better), but for the most part, the stats look pretty right on with a winning tight-aggressive player's play. ...So why can't I win?

One curious thing to look at - when I look at how much I'm paying in blinds - $727.50 and the total rake taken, $66.00, that's approx $800 down the toilet right there. So i'm really turning out $600 or so in game play, but it's getting eaten up by blinds and rake. (I realize i need to get a rake back affiliate, but right now i'm already signed up for some of the big ones, so I haven't taken the time to get an affiliate and sign up for some of the others that i'm not already a member).

I'd say my play is pretty consistent with a solid tight-aggressive player, as is discussed in here. I've always been a winning poker player in B&M games, so why can't I win online? ...The only hands that I think some might debate that I don't play (which explains my slightly low VP$IP) would be AJo and ATo and KQo from first 2 or 3 positions. I also pass on 66 and lower from early and mid, will sometimes play them in late position or steal blinds with them. In my regular B&M game, it's 5+ handed everytime (usually pretty juicy at this game!), so I play a LOT more AXs and suited connectors in late position. Online, i rarely play them... Because even in 1/2 hold em on Full Tilt and UB, it's rare that I get in with 67s in late position because most of the time it's just one limper and it's just not very profitable to play 67s+ with 4 handed pots (2 limpers + blinds). Certainly if i get 2 or more limpers, i'm in there late position with suited connectors.

I attempt steal blinds approx 25% of the time when on button and one off button, and succeed over 50% of the time at my stealing attempt. So i don't think there's a real leak there. Maybe I'm not doing it enough?

I think I have a strong grasp of post flop play, including my math and knowing when to value bet, etc.

I don't consider myself to be an amateur at all, but this is making me FEEL that way and I'm very frustrated. WHAT THE HELL AM I DOING WRONG? (haha, i'm sure a TON, i just need some good outside opinions to help me see it).

Any advice is appreciated. thanks guys (and gals!)



Where am I going wrong?!?!?

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
My current stats after 2,664 hands playing 1/2, 2/4 and 3/6 limit hold em full ring games at FULL TILT and ULTIMATE BET

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how their rake compares (I'm sure it's similar if not identical), but from what I've heard anyway, these are two of the tougher sites to win at. Certainly more difficult than fish-laden sites like the Party skins & Pacific. That's no doubt part of your problem, although there's probably more.


[ QUOTE ]
VP$IP = 13.05
W$WSF = 33.94
W$SD = 57.41
PFR = 5.03

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't give any information on your postflop aggression (which is a key stat in analyzing overall play), but the preflop raise percentage is very troubling, particularly if you've been playing as high as 5/10 in the past. This number should be considerably more than even 7%, especially considering how tightly you play. I'd be shooting for at least 10%; at least based on what you said later in your post, it would appear that nearly every hand you play is worthy of a raise.

You have to protect your hands preflop, in order to cut down on the opposition in each hand and therefore increase your chances of winning the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I attempt steal blinds approx 25% of the time when on button and one off button

[/ QUOTE ]

Again considering your tight overall play and what I would thus figure to be a very good table image, you should be attempting to steal more. Especially when you're playing 3/6 & 5/10, but on the lower limits as well. There are numerous threads on here about blind stealing standards & strategy, which can be found using the search function.

It's also possible that table selection is playing a part in your troubles. If you're at a table with a bunch of tight players, there's no reason when you're playing online to grind it out there. Just find a better, looser table and keep at it.

As always, post some hands that have given you trouble in the past, and read/reply to threads that others have posted. You'll get some great advice here on specific hands, and getting involved in the discussions about others' hands can be an even better learning tool.

Welcome to the forums! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]
VP$IP = 13.05
W$WSF = 33.94
W$SD = 57.41
PFR = 5.03

$ TOTAL = (-$224.75)
BB/100 = (-1.65)



[/ QUOTE ]
Look at this:

Stats Post
Some comments:

As you know, 2,000 hands is nothing....I've broken even over 20,000 hands before for a comparison.

VPIP: Really low for these levels..try looking for a starting hand chart similar to books like SSHE. Only add hands you can play profitably. Don't just add hands for the sake of adding them. If you can't play profitably, add them as you become more experienced.

This could also be b/c you do not steal the blinds enough or don't call from the small blind enough. Look at the stats post. I think 25% is low for stealing the blinds but it depends on other factors like game/players you're playing against.

W$WSF: A little low IMO. Your W$SD is also probably high. Maybe you don't see enough showdowns? Or, you could be running good. What is your Went to SD number?

PFR: Obviously low, would like to be closer to 9.0 or so.

BB/100: Pointless with only 2k hands

Best way to learn though.....post hands....read hands...etc...look for common situations so that you can learn quicker. I recommend pokermentor.net. PM if you're interested.

Lozing

Is there a stat in poker tracker that would give a good feel for my postflop aggression? if so, let me know and I'll post it up.

yes, your postflop aggression number....lol....I'm guessing you don't know how to get it. Here's how:

Go to the ring game screen
Click on more detail (somewhere near the top right)
You'll see a list of a ton of stats


Click (on the top left) in the checkbox called "Include PF numbers in aggression factor. Scroll down to see it.

Lozing

oops, yeah I found it just after I posted that. Like I said, I just downloaded poker tracker about 5 days ago. I knew it had aggression calculations because of it's auto-assign ratings (i.e. AF < 2, etc), just didn't notice the MORE DETAIL button there so couldn't find them. Anyway... yeah, here's the info:

Aggression factor
pre-flop = .56
flop = 2.33
turn = 2.84
river = 1.26

total/overall = 1.16

(edited this post. had originally forgot to check "include pre-flop aggression" box)

that was without the "include pre-flop aggression" checked. sorry.
pre-flop = .56
flop = 2.33
turn = 2.88
river = 1.26

total = 1.16

I think everyone of those postflop stats is a little low. Especially the preflop and flop numbers. You should have an AF over 1.5 generally to be aggressive. By these numbers (and given the fact tha you play very few hands), you are probably playing too passively. With only playing 13% of your hands, I'd expect your AF numbers to be higher.

Lozing