A Unique Draft Strategy - Please Advise

[YoureToast]

I pick 3rd in a league where the QB gets 6 pts for passing TDs. Everything else pretty standard.

Right now, my plan is to pick up Peyton Manning with the 1st pick. With my 2nd pick (#21), I plan on picking up either a Tier #1 WR or, if none are available, the best running back on the board. Round #3 will be top running back if I choose WR in round #2, or either a RB or WR (best value) if I pick a RB in round 2.

My feeling is that if I can get Peyton and Moss, I can count on the 2nd level RBs being available in rounds 3, 4, and 5. Is this a recipe for disaster? I really believe NOT picking up Peyton at #3 would be a mistake given (i) our league rules, which are slightly unusual and (ii) the question marks surround Priest Holmes, who I would pick up if I didn't take Peyton (assuming Tomlinson and Alexander were gone).

[The Armchair]

Never works.

Peyton is fine at #3, although I'd prefer him at #4. But that's to taste.

The problem is the WR. The difference between the best WR and the 20th is not all that big, and there are a lot of starting-quality WRs out there. Similarly, determining who will be in the top 10 is nearly impossible. Last year? There were at least five guys in the top 10 who were mid-round draft picks: Wayne, Muhmammed, Bennett, Driver, Stokley.

In 2003, same thing: Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Anquan Boldin, arguable Chad Johnson, and extending slightly, Keenan McCardell.

In 2002, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Amani Toomer, Rod Gardner, and arguable Plaxico Burress.

The problem is that those players will be taken with 6th to 9th round draft picks. While they are unidentifiable, they _will_ be taken. And someone will get excellent WR production with a mid-late pick.

On the other hand, the same cannot be said for RBs. Except for Droughns, the top 10 in rushing yards were all gone by round 4 last year. For TDs, top ten except Bettis. In 2003, the top ten rushers were all early picks, with TJ Duckett being the only top ten scorer that could have slipped. In 2002, the same was true, just put in "Moe Williams" where it says "TJ Duckett."

Take a RB in the second and either first or third, depending on what you want to do with Manning.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
Never works.

Peyton is fine at #3, although I'd prefer him at #4. But that's to taste.

The problem is the WR. The difference between the best WR and the 20th is not all that big, and there are a lot of starting-quality WRs out there. Similarly, determining who will be in the top 10 is nearly impossible. Last year? There were at least five guys in the top 10 who were mid-round draft picks: Wayne, Muhmammed, Bennett, Driver, Stokley.

In 2003, same thing: Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Anquan Boldin, arguable Chad Johnson, and extending slightly, Keenan McCardell.

In 2002, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Amani Toomer, Rod Gardner, and arguable Plaxico Burress.

The problem is that those players will be taken with 6th to 9th round draft picks. While they are unidentifiable, they _will_ be taken. And someone will get excellent WR production with a mid-late pick.

On the other hand, the same cannot be said for RBs. Except for Droughns, the top 10 in rushing yards were all gone by round 4 last year. For TDs, top ten except Bettis. In 2003, the top ten rushers were all early picks, with TJ Duckett being the only top ten scorer that could have slipped. In 2002, the same was true, just put in "Moe Williams" where it says "TJ Duckett."

Take a RB in the second and either first or third, depending on what you want to do with Manning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the solid advice. Just to be clear, you don't take Moss, if available, in the 2nd?

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Never works.

Peyton is fine at #3, although I'd prefer him at #4. But that's to taste.

The problem is the WR. The difference between the best WR and the 20th is not all that big, and there are a lot of starting-quality WRs out there. Similarly, determining who will be in the top 10 is nearly impossible. Last year? There were at least five guys in the top 10 who were mid-round draft picks: Wayne, Muhmammed, Bennett, Driver, Stokley.

In 2003, same thing: Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, Anquan Boldin, arguable Chad Johnson, and extending slightly, Keenan McCardell.

In 2002, Eric Moulds, Peerless Price, Amani Toomer, Rod Gardner, and arguable Plaxico Burress.

The problem is that those players will be taken with 6th to 9th round draft picks. While they are unidentifiable, they _will_ be taken. And someone will get excellent WR production with a mid-late pick.

On the other hand, the same cannot be said for RBs. Except for Droughns, the top 10 in rushing yards were all gone by round 4 last year. For TDs, top ten except Bettis. In 2003, the top ten rushers were all early picks, with TJ Duckett being the only top ten scorer that could have slipped. In 2002, the same was true, just put in "Moe Williams" where it says "TJ Duckett."

Take a RB in the second and either first or third, depending on what you want to do with Manning.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the solid advice. Just to be clear, you don't take Moss, if available, in the 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

he won't be there and I am wary of owning him this year.

You will likely be looking at the very last of the servicable wrs which would be pretty decent and then maybe you take wr in round 3 if say chad johnson or someone of that caliber is still around. I got ahman green in the third on one of these drafts there though, and he was like the last serviceable guy and whatnot.

[The Armchair]

[ QUOTE ]


Thanks for the solid advice. Just to be clear, you don't take Moss, if available, in the 2nd?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not if I took a QB in round one. If I took an RB and thought that I'd get a good RB at 3.3, then yes. However, it's more likely that I'll take a second RB at 2.8 (or 2.10, depending on league size) and grab Holt or CJ at 3.3.