Ace jack causing grief

thesharpie · #1 09-03-2005, 12:33 AM

Hand one, MP1 just sat down, BB is 8% PFR over 25 hands.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Hero raises, 1 fold, MP1 3-bets, 5 folds, BB caps, Hero ???

Second one, SB hasn't raised preflop yet over 20 something hands, limp reraiser is a borderline maniac

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $2.
UTG calls, 1 fold, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 1 fold, CO (poster) checks, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 caps, MP2 folds, CO folds, Hero ???

W. Deranged · #2 09-03-2005, 12:36 AM

Muck. Muck. Hide face in shame.

AJ NEVER plays well in a capped pot. Period. Investing 2 more small bets will not be right.

#3 09-03-2005, 12:40 AM

First hand: I think I'd call getting those odds to look for a flush.

Second hand: Easy fold.

penisclaw · #4 09-03-2005, 12:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Muck. Muck. Hide face in shame.

AJ NEVER plays well in a capped pot. Period. Investing 2 more small bets will not be right.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shouldn't he at least see the flop with hand #1? He's got flush potential, and hes already invested 2 bets. Maybe I'm wrong, but that seems logical.

W. Deranged · #5 09-03-2005, 12:44 AM

Hero will be getting about 5-1 or so here. Flush value does not get you to the necessary equity number (like 16% or whatever), and you are dominated so often that I think it's fine to chuck the hand at this point. Think about how frequently you are going to be put in really tough situations flopping an A or J in this hand. Those situations are very hard to play for +EV, and I doubt it's even possible to squeak out enough value out of the high cards here to make it worth seeing the flop.

AQs if good enough to see the flop. AJs and AQo I think are just on the "fold" side of the border, though.

thesharpie · #6 09-03-2005, 01:05 AM

I did a pokerstove run for the first hand pretending we held AJo:

10,362,900,240 games 24.415 secs 424,448,095 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.1344 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 34.3809 % [ 00.32 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 50.4847 % [ 00.49 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs }

Here's suited:

3,454,300,080 games 8.983 secs 384,537,468 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 19.5208 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AJs }
Hand 2: 32.7571 % [ 00.31 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 47.7221 % [ 00.46 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs }

If we just go by this it looks like being suited swings it to a call. However like you said we'll be put in a tough position if a A or J falls and that alone probably makes a fold correct.

W. Deranged · #7 09-03-2005, 01:09 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I did a pokerstove run for the first hand pretending we held AJo:

10,362,900,240 games 24.415 secs 424,448,095 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 15.1344 % [ 00.15 00.01 ] { AJo }
Hand 2: 34.3809 % [ 00.32 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 50.4847 % [ 00.49 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs }

Here's suited:

3,454,300,080 games 8.983 secs 384,537,468 games/sec

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 19.5208 % [ 00.19 00.01 ] { AJs }
Hand 2: 32.7571 % [ 00.31 00.02 ] { AA-TT, AKs-AQs, AKo }
Hand 3: 47.7221 % [ 00.46 00.02 ] { AA-JJ, AKs }

If we just go by this it looks like being suited swings it to a call. However like you said we'll be put in a tough position if a A or J falls and that alone probably makes a fold correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for doing the Pokerstove work, dude. I'm always too lazy.

It looks like the suitedness swings us to a call, but note that AJ is the sort of hand where when we are hit and ahead we are not going to make that much (usually it'll be when we hit a J against AK and AQ or something like that or when we hit an A against two underpairs) and when we hit and are behind (dominated) we are going to pay off a bunch.

Sure we might win just enough if we showdown right now, but the hand doesn't end right now. I think those difficulties push it to a very easy fold.

Think about it this way: do you want to be playing this hand?

I sure as hell don't. It scares the [censored] out of me.

Harv72b · #8 09-03-2005, 01:24 AM

That's funny. My first instinct was to fold in Hand 1, call in Hand 2.

Hand 1 you've only got two opponents--you're definitely behind, and if you catch a monster flop you're probably not going to be paid off that well. And you pretty much have to catch a monster flop to continue. It also doesn't help that you're stuck in the middle of them postflop.

In Hand 2, you've got a ton of dead money already in the pot, you have position, and you have a LAG to try & outraise you when you hit the board hard. Your implied odds are much better here because of those two factors, and having position postflop helps a ton.

That's my thinking, anyway...I have no idea if the math backs this up.

thesharpie · #9 09-03-2005, 01:56 AM

I agree, I think hand 2 is a better hand to call with than hand 2. We only have to worry about being dominated by the SB, and we'd surely call his 3 bet for 1 more SB. Since there's so much dead money in the pot we're getting a better price than if it was heads up and we was just calling his 3 bet.

I actually folded both hands and of course the flop came AJx both times. I think I still would've posted these though. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]