Semibluff, then fold to a river bet?

PokerSparky · #1 09-01-2005, 04:09 AM

Villain was 34/6.5/0.4. I hate checking the river and inviting players to bluff me out of a pot with nothing (busted draw), yet I couldn't bring myself to call this river bet. The board is draw heavy, should I just fired again on the river?

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, MP1 calls, 1 fold, MP3 raises, 3 folds, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls, MP3 folds.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP1 calls.

River: (6.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 7.25 BB

crovax4444 · #2 09-01-2005, 05:19 AM

Is this one of those times where you should bet the river and fold to a raise? Your betting the scare card/ looks like you might have had a queen.

PokerSparky · #3 09-01-2005, 05:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is this one of those times where you should bet the river and fold to a raise? Your betting the scare card/ looks like you might have had a queen.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think so. The only hand's that call on the river are ones that beat us. A check call to snap off bluffs from busted draws is a better line IMO. I just didn't think this villain would have bet a busted draw on the river, so I folded, but I just didn't like it.

bjarne · #4 09-01-2005, 06:22 AM

I'd bet the river and fold to a raise every time here. You're
getting 1:6 on a river bluff so give the man a chance to let go of his unimproved AK [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

PokerSparky · #5 09-01-2005, 08:03 AM

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I like a river bet. Check folding is weak here.

Jarcon · #6 09-01-2005, 08:28 AM

I dont think MP1 have AK since he didnt raise PF. (or is that 0.4 PF raise [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]).

I really would check-call here. He might have KT,K9,T9,98, 2 hearts. I dont think he would call any hand that you would win. Give him chance to bluff.

bjarne · #7 09-01-2005, 08:41 AM

Oh, I misread the post. I thought he was preflop raiser. That changes things a bit.
Anyway, why induce a bluff when you have nothing to call with? (or did I misread the board again?)

You'd like to induce a bluff when you think he will fold a worse hand to a bet instead of calling, i.e. you are pretty confident in winning but you think the opponent will not call if you bet, but may bet out if you check.

Betting the river here is not a value bet hoping he will call with a worse hand (Hero is likely the one with the worst hand). It is a bet you are making hoping he will make a 'good laydown' and fold something that beats you (like bottom pair).

It's pure bluffing. If you plan to check/call betting out is
always better in this situation IMO. Alhtough check/fold might be the best line here.

jrz1972 · #8 09-01-2005, 08:50 AM

If he was going to fold bottom pair, he would have folded it on the turn. Betting the river is clearly wrong since you're not getting called by anything you beat and you're not folding anything that beats you.

The interesting thing is whether Hero should check-call or check-fold. How often do you think villain is bluffing with a busted draw here? It's pretty unlikely that he was on a flush draw, but there are some legitimate OESDs that he could have whiffed with. Remove the Q from the board and I think it's an easy fold since there aren't many draws available. Given the actual board, it's close (and read-dependent of course).

bjarne · #9 09-01-2005, 09:33 AM

Hmm, I start thinking fold more and more. But villain could have bottom pair and still fold the river if he has it combined with a flushdraw or a single overcard, and some people do draw with bottom pair all the way hoping to catch miracle cards on the river.

I can understand that check/fold could be the best alternative here,

but,

I still think bet/(fold to raise) > check/call.

deception5 · #10 09-01-2005, 10:13 AM

This is definitely a check/call or check/fold. Given the fact that villian called down you are basically hoping to be against T9/89. There are 2 problems with calling here. First he has a .4 aggression so it is extremely likely he's not betting T9/89 or a busted flush draw here (particularly where you have 2 of the best hearts). Second the board has a lot of cards that could have hit the player's hand. QJ7 could all be in the range of hands that MP could have.

If you do check/call you have to be right 14% of the time and I would say it's probably close. I don't think folding or calling is a big mistake here.