20/40 River Problem

[ALL1N]

BB is an okay-playing LAG - gives a bit much action, and is the reason I'm in the game.

Party Poker 20/40 Hold'em (3 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB 3-bets</font>, BB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds.

Turn: (8.50 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

How would you plan to handle the different river cards?

[TStoneMBD]

i think i like the idea of raising any non [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] non 6 or 7 river. it really represents that you are valueraising an overpair. i wouldnt expect villain to fold a 5 here, but id say he has a draw more often than not.

[ALL1N]

Dudes?

[ggbman]

I don't think raising the river will fold out any pair, only busted flush draws. Raise any straight card, call if a 6 or 7 comes off.

I don't like this raise PF since the blind will almost always come along, and even though he'll pay you off a lot, you won't flop hands your comfortable putting a lot of bets in postflop with very often.

Gabe

[etizzle]

I dont think that could this guy really resist raising a draw or a 5 the first time around, so to me this looks like a big hand. Would this guy call 2 cold here with A5 or 56?

I play this river pretty conservatively, just calling when I hit my pairs and raising a 3 or an 8. I think you usually lose with a 6 or 7, but you will win enough to show a profit by calling.

[ALL1N]

IMO once he 3-bets the flop it's nearly assuredly a monster or a flush draw. So I planned on raising most blank rivers.

The river came 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I just called, and I think I like it. Only A3 (unlikely given preflop) and Axss call a raise as losers, but 55/44/22 could all easily be out.

Anyway, he had 55 so me hitting ended up saving me a bet [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]


The river came 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I just called, and I think I like it. Only A3 (unlikely given preflop) and Axss call a raise as losers, but 55/44/22 could all easily be out.


[/ QUOTE ]

whoooooooa -- you hit your miracle card and just call?? I raise this 8 days of the week. ANY ace pays you off (and given the steal situation, AQ and AK could have been pumping that flop putting you on worse overcards). ANY overpair also pays this off (different situation entirely if your raise had come in a non-steal situation, but IMO you raise this river, call a 3-bet).

EDIT: the more I think about this hand, the more upset I am you didn't raise this river. It's a must, I believe.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The river came 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I just called, and I think I like it. Only A3 (unlikely given preflop) and Axss call a raise as losers, but 55/44/22 could all easily be out.


[/ QUOTE ]

whoooooooa -- you hit your miracle card and just call?? I raise this 8 days of the week. ANY ace pays you off (and given the steal situation, AQ and AK could have been pumping that flop putting you on worse overcards). ANY overpair also pays this off (different situation entirely if your raise had come in a non-steal situation, but IMO you raise this river, call a 3-bet).

EDIT: the more I think about this hand, the more upset I am you didn't raise this river. It's a must, I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe your line is right for other situations but the Hero made a read here. On the flop, he put the villain on a flush draw or a monster. And depending on how well he knows his opponent or how confident he is in his read, the Hero's play of just calling on the river is excellent. If the villain has a broken draw, a river raise accomplishes nothing, and if the villain has a monster hand like a full house, The Hero will just cost himself more money by raising. The only monster hand the villain can have that will call the hero's raise on the river is A3. If we make the generous assumption that the villain would always call a 3 bet from the big blind with A3o or A3s, than our hero is a 12-7 favorite to get paid off on his river raise, but since the hero will only make 1BB when he has the better hand and he will lose 2BB every time the villain has the better hand (assuming he calls the reraise by the villain) the hero is still better off to just call in this situation since hes not more than a 2-1 favorite to get paid off on his river raise.

[piggity]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this 8 days of the week.

[/ QUOTE ]

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


The river came 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I just called, and I think I like it. Only A3 (unlikely given preflop) and Axss call a raise as losers, but 55/44/22 could all easily be out.


[/ QUOTE ]

whoooooooa -- you hit your miracle card and just call?? I raise this 8 days of the week. ANY ace pays you off (and given the steal situation, AQ and AK could have been pumping that flop putting you on worse overcards). ANY overpair also pays this off (different situation entirely if your raise had come in a non-steal situation, but IMO you raise this river, call a 3-bet).

EDIT: the more I think about this hand, the more upset I am you didn't raise this river. It's a must, I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe your line is right for other situations but the Hero made a read here. On the flop, he put the villain on a flush draw or a monster. And depending on how well he knows his opponent or how confident he is in his read, the Hero's play of just calling on the river is excellent. If the villain has a broken draw, a river raise accomplishes nothing, and if the villain has a monster hand like a full house, The Hero will just cost himself more money by raising. The only monster hand the villain can have that will call the hero's raise on the river is A3. If we make the generous assumption that the villain would always call a 3 bet from the big blind with A3o or A3s, than our hero is a 12-7 favorite to get paid off on his river raise, but since the hero will only make 1BB when he has the better hand and he will lose 2BB every time the villain has the better hand (assuming he calls the reraise by the villain) the hero is still better off to just call in this situation since hes not more than a 2-1 favorite to get paid off on his river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do yourself a favor and count up the number of hand that pay off the raise vs. the number of hands that 3-bet hero for value. Some decisions are close -- this one is not. You better be able to read the BB like a book to make this play anywhere near profitable.