QQ Call?

[StojkeAK]

Playing 1/2 I have about 215 I have villain covered
Hes a fairly tight aggressive player, he makes a lot of raises with pocket pairs, my image tight and aggressive

I make it 10 to with QQ from early postion and he calls from the small blind.

Flop is: 8 7 6 with 2 clubs
I bet 20 and he calls

Turn is: 10
He pushes all in for 70

Should I call or lay it down? What do you put him on?
Results later

[jzpiano14]

This is an easy spot to bluff a 9, tough spot to be in though. Ii really don't know what I would do for sure, I might fold but then again I'm a wuss.....

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Playing 1/2 I have about 215 I have villain covered
Hes a fairly tight aggressive player, he makes a lot of raises with pocket pairs, my image tight and aggressive

I make it 10 to with QQ from early postion and he calls from the small blind.

Flop is: 8 7 6 with 2 clubs
I bet 20 and he calls

Turn is: 10
He pushes all in for 70

Should I call or lay it down? What do you put him on?
Results later

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm guessing the 10 was NOT the third club or else you would have noted it.
You said villain raises a lot of pocket pairs, but he probably doesn't reraise most of them when he's out of position if he is "tight aggressive". After he pushes, there is $130 in the pot and you have to call $70. In order to make this call +EV you have to win 35% of the time.

Villains likely holdings are:AA,KK,QQ(unlikely), JJ,TT,99,88,77,66, A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Against AA (6 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against KK (6 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against QQ (1 way), you split.
Against JJ (6 ways), you are 87% to win.
Against TT (3 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against 99 (6 ways), you are 0% to win.
Against 88 (3 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against 77 (3 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against 66 (3 ways), you are 4% to win.
Against A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1 way), you are 62% to win.
Against A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (1 way), you are 69% to win.

I think AKs and AQs smooth calling both preflop and the flop are very unlikely unless they had a flush draw. Therefore, flush draw eliminates many of the AK and AQ possibilities except spades. A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] are less likely than any of the pocket pairs.

On the average, you are ~19% to win this hand against opponents hand range. Given this information, I don't really see how you can call this.

[Godfather80]

Results?

Nice analysis Godfather.

[Godfather80]

[ QUOTE ]
Nice analysis Godfather.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks, but do you agree with it?