Middle set, huge pot, and lots of bullets to dodge

[DrewOnTilt]

The turn action on this hand had me really worried.

Live 6/12 game, very loose passive preflop and loose somewhat aggressive postflop.

UTG+1 is a loose passive. His action screams bottom set, as he would have reraised preflop with aces.

Hero is MP3 with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG raises, 2 calls, Hero calls, 1 call, blinds call

7 to the flop, 14 SB in the pot.

Flop is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Checked to UTG+1, UTG+1 bets, 1 fold, Hero calls, 3 calls, UTG folds. 9 BB pot.

I didn't raise the flop because it would not protect the hand against flush draws. This was a very flush-y table, with players commonly playing any 2 suited, so I wanted to charge a double big bet on the turn.

Turn is 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG+1 bets, Hero raises, 3 calls, UTG+1 3-bets, Hero...???

Now I'm a bit worried about all of the collective outs. The 3 callers to my left were all loose but not uber-donks, and none of them had coldcalled any previous raises without at least a decent draw.

Half of the deck will put 3 to a flush on the board. An 8 or a King will sink me in the event that Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is out. I'm positive that the case 4 is no good, and I really won't feel all that great about board paired Aces, either. Yuck.

Still, there are 4 chasers in the pot with me. I try to quickly count all of the possible outs against me, figure that I still had a thin edge, and cap for value.

I've tried to calculate my approximate turn edge, but my brain isn't cooperating right now. Help? Do you agree with the turn cap, or should I have waited to see the river action?

Clear clear cap for value. I put the worst case scenario into the simulator at twodimes.net. I have your opponents Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. You still have 34% chance of winning the pot.

[Spartan1983]

I cap. That way it's 2 cold back to the limpers, maybe you can thin the field some. At worse, you have the 2nd best hand. I think it's any easy cap and I'd be looking to getting in a couple bets on the river when a small black card falls. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[Bill C]

I'd raise the flop, not so much to protect, as for value. Those with AX are not going to fold, at least at this point. So charge them. Build the pot.

I'd have capped the turn, too. Wonder what your 3 callers are going to do with the cap?

You sure don't want to see any red cards on the river unless one fills you up.

bill

[clownshoes]

I raise the flop, youre not going to protect yourself against flush draws no matter what you do but you can make them pay for it.
Cap the turn.

[Moneyline]

Jamb this bastard on the turn. Yeah, there are a lot of draws out there, but not all the scare cards will hurt you, some of your opponents might be drawing dead (like if 2 guys are drawing to the same flush) and you have outs to improve your hand yourself.

Just my opinion...

[PTjvs]

This is a super easy cap for value. You are more thn 50% to win this pot outright, even assuming absolute worst case scenario that both flush draws are out there, AND it's multiway. Not capping here would be criminal in some states. Just as long as you aren't against TT.

jvs

[MyTurn2Raise]

JAM THE FLOP... stated earlier, but it bears repeating. You might get paid off big your way, but you let in all sorts of backdoor flush/str8 draws. (See the three callers behind you.) It's lead to your now very precarious position. With the fish, take the pot when it's yours. Trips are not quite the monster with a very donkish table.

Like everyone else said, jam the turn.