"Horse Race" Concept in action

[aaron7484]

Seat 1 is a solid, observant player who often folds to a completion
Seat 4 is quite loose
Seat 5 also seems to be a solid player, though I don't have much of a read on him yet


7 Card Stud High ($0.50/$1.00), Ante $0.05, Bring-In $0.25 (hand converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 2: xx xx T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___folds
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 6: xx xx 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (4.70 SB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 5: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

5th Street - (3.85 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets___calls
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___folds

6th Street - (7.85 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (9.85 BB)

Seat 1: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] xx___bets
Hero: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___calls

Total pot: 11.85 BB

I almost definitely have the best hand on 3rd, so I raised hoping to get heads up with Seat 5. The check from Seat 5 on 4th St was a bit surprising & I was half expecting to be check-raised. Once he folded, I figured myself to still be ahead. When Seat 1 came out raising on 5th, I figured him to most likely be on a flush draw, and perhaps on a straight draw as well. A low pair and some kind of drawing hand was also a possibility. So I stuck in a raise to get heads up. Would you wave the white flag here & fold instead? Comments/advice on all streets appreciated.

[BeerMoney]

Where does the horse race concept come in?

Where are you from in Maine?

[Roland]

3rd should be a call imo. Granted, you did say seat 1 folded to a completion quite often, but I can’t imagine he does this more than, say, 20% of the time? Unless that figure is significantly higher, I’d just call to keep the pot small with my semi-dead hand.

If you had indeed only called on 3rd you could just give this up on 4th. Since you completed though, the pot is worth fighting for. Looking at those diamonds + over card, a check is a possibility too, but I think it’s better to give them a chance to fold and see what you’re at.

The raise on 5th is, of course, mandatory.

His bet on 6th looks pretty donkish to me, but you can’t do anything but call. Same goes for the river.

Well played.

[aaron7484]

My pair of queens is dead. Two fives are out, and they won't be good if he's drawing as I believed he was (in which case my queens alone will be good). Basically, anything I can improve to won't be good if he hits either draw. I can only win if I'm not outdrawn--I cannot redraw on him, except the looong shot of runner runner for a full house. I guess the horse race concept doesn't really apply to heads up though?

I'm from Portland, but I go to school in Brunswick.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
3rd should be a call imo. Granted, you did say seat 1 folded to a completion quite often, but I can’t imagine he does this more than, say, 20% of the time? Unless that figure is significantly higher, I’d just call to keep the pot small with my semi-dead hand.

If you had indeed only called on 3rd you could just give this up on 4th. Since you completed though, the pot is worth fighting for. Looking at those diamonds + over card, a check is a possibility too, but I think it’s better to give them a chance to fold and see what you’re at.

The raise on 5th is, of course, mandatory.

His bet on 6th looks pretty donkish to me, but you can’t do anything but call. Same goes for the river.

Well played.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was going to write the same thing about 3rd but decided to read the posts first. I usually am an advocate of raising big pairs most of the time, especially in low limit games, because of the pot equity and the fact that you can usually outplay the donks after 3rd. This case though seems like a call because of the dead queen (that called before you too...could be QQ up against QQ was my first thought. If that is true, you have the weaker kicker on third most likely). I think you are better off putting yourself in a position to get out of the hand here since the odds of thinning the field are slim.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess the horse race concept doesn't really apply to heads up though?

[/ QUOTE ]


No, it doesn’t. You might not have a great edge on 6th due to the deadness of your hand, but your by no means in terrible shape (if he doesn’t have the straight or yet).

The horse race concept (or “horse raise concept” as Istream likes to call it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]) is important on 3rd, 4th and 5th though.

[Roland]

[ QUOTE ]
I usually am an advocate of raising big pairs most of the time, especially in low limit games, because of the pot equity and the fact that you can usually outplay the donks after 3rd. This case though seems like a call because of the dead queen

[/ QUOTE ]


Yeah, that’s just the point - you’re pot equity with a semi-dead hand is much lower than with a live hand (that’s where the horse race concept comes into play).

[Bartholow]

Looks good to me. With everyone's hand super dead and you with the queens, I would expect to win here.

[aaron7484]

villain made an 8 high straight on 6th [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Andy B]

The horse race concept goes something like this: you have a race in which you have one horse who is a very good, consistent performer. He's up against, say, three other horses, all of whom are fairly erratic performers, but any one of which is capable of having a great race. The consistent performer is going to be a favorite against each of the erratic performers on an individual basis, but he is a dog to the field.

This is applicable in seven-card stud when you have a decent made hand against a few draws. Say you have two pair, perhaps with one of your cards gone, and you're up against three players who are on flush draws. You're a favorite against each of those hands individually, but you're a dog against the field.

The hand you posted has nothing to do with any of that.

Solid players do not limp in for half a bet and then fold to a completion, at least not very often. I have played in a lot of games with a half-bet bring-in, and I'm pretty sure I've never done that.

I would limp on third. With a Queen gone, your hand is significantly weakened. You're not very likely to get much of anyone out. If the bring-in will fold, he'll probably fold when you bet fourth street anyway.

Really, I can see folding on fourth or fifth, especially if you had kept the pot smaller.

I want to know what you can limp first-in with when you have the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in the door, catch the K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on fourth, and fold for one more bet.