JJ - turn decision

TJD · #1 08-25-2005, 05:24 AM

Thanks for all your help with my "Is it broke" series.

Here's another.

Villain is 36/9 fairly aggressive post flop and is in the top 25% of "bluffers". He raises the turn with less than top pair 20% of the time


 I check behind here since if I am CR, I will feel uncomfortable about either calling or folding.

Is this right? If not why not?


Thanks all

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 2 folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls.

Flop: (7 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, SB folds, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

River: (4.50 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 6.50 BB

Clarkmeister · #2 08-25-2005, 11:07 AM

You've got to bet this turn.

TJD · #3 08-25-2005, 01:24 PM

Many thanks for replying.

[ QUOTE ]
You've got to bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I asked [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

However, what do I do if I am check-raised?

Let's assume the board is less draw heavy

K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Do I still bet?

If so, what do I do if I am check raised?

Thanks

Trevor

Nigel · #4 08-25-2005, 01:38 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You've got to bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if UTG shows Tc 9c, hero actually gains a bet by checking and inducing a bluff from a mega-bluffer with a hand that was hopelessly behind and would have most likely folded turn.

If UTG shows Kc 9c and was waiting to CR the turn, and hero was planning on calling down, he saves 2 bets with his turn check.

I agree his hand is vulnerable, I agree that you need to bet this often. I don't think it is an auto bet though, especially if you are folding to a turn CR.

DcifrThs · #5 08-25-2005, 01:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You've got to bet this turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well if UTG shows Tc 9c, hero actually gains a bet by checking and inducing a bluff from a mega-bluffer with a hand that was hopelessly behind and would have most likely folded turn.

If UTG shows Kc 9c and was waiting to CR the turn, and hero was planning on calling down, he saves 2 bets with his turn check.

I agree his hand is vulnerable, I agree that you need to bet this often. I don't think it is an auto bet though, especially if you are folding to a turn CR.

[/ QUOTE ]

0% fodling to a turn c'r.

+ you dont even MENTION the times hero is far ahead, gets checkraised anyways by this top 25% of bluffers (which says ALOT) and gains two full bets since the c'rer will likely bet the river.

not to mention the guy plays 40% of his hands and STILL manages to bet and raise 2x as much as he calls

-Barron

Nigel · #6 08-25-2005, 01:47 PM

Barron -

He mentions that Villian raises turn with a hand weaker than TP only 20% of the time (not sure where he gets that stat, but we can go with it for the sake of the discussion).

So, it does not look good for Hero if he is CRed here on the turn, and based on UTG's propensity to bluff, I am sure he will jump at the chance on the river. The problem is letting him hit a A, Q or straight that he might have folded on the turn, so I'm not sure how the math balances out there.

Nigel

TStoneMBD · #7 08-25-2005, 02:02 PM

hello TJD, how are you estimating that villain raises the turn with less than top pair 20% of the time? is that your own estimation from observing his play or are you using a program for that? if so, which is it?

as for the hand, i agree that you need to bet the turn and call down if checkraised.

colgin · #8 08-25-2005, 02:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind here since if I am CR, I will feel uncomfortable about either calling or folding.

Is this right? If not why not?

[/ QUOTE ]

As others have said your hand is far too vulnerable to give a free card here. Many free cards hurt you and almost none help you. You must bet to protect your hand.

However, if your read on villain is correct you really don't face a tough dcision if you get checkraised. If villain bluffs as much as you say he does you call him down. Your effective odds to call this guy down are 3.25:1 (assuming he bets the river). Against this villain, who could be outright bluffing or semi-bluffing with his C/R, you can expect to be good often enough given the odds you are getting.

Nigel · #9 08-25-2005, 02:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your effective odds to call this guy down are 3.25:1 (assuming he bets the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

On what is at least a 4:1 shot against him. That makes sense.

colgin · #10 08-25-2005, 03:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Your effective odds to call this guy down are 3.25:1 (assuming he bets the river).

[/ QUOTE ]

On what is at least a 4:1 shot against him. That makes sense.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nigel,

I gues I was more focused on this part of villain's description -- "Villain is 36/9 fairly aggressive post flop and is in the top 25% of "bluffers" -- than this part -- "He raises the turn with less than top pair 20% of the time" -- and thus was basing my analysis more on a villain who likes too bluff an awful lot than one who bluffs exactly 20% of the time.

In any event, given this board, and in a game where people will semi-bluff check-raise, don't you think given villain's overall description that the combined odds that he is either bluffing outright or semi-bluffing on this board if he check-raises Hero on the turn is greater than 20% and, given the effective odds, thus warrants a call down.