A5o in BB against a LAG

marand · #1 08-25-2005, 01:01 PM

Villian seems to be a LAG, but haven't played with him enough to be really sure. Let's assume he has 50% VPIP, 25% PFR and is aggressive after the flop.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 4.25 BB

I really don't like this kind of situation. I don't know how to play it.

On the flop I think my hand is OK. My hand is better than many of the hands that he will autobet. If I am behind I have a gutshot and 3 outs for an Ace.
My plan was to call the flop and if the turn card was "safe" call him down and hope he keeps betting missed overcards.
But when I saw that K on the turn I decided to fold.

Thoughts?

aflaba · #2 08-25-2005, 02:12 PM

When you decide to calldown on the flop he could have many non-paired hands. On the turn many of these hands have now paired with the king.

Does he have a big enough % of hands that are not paired on the turn to warrant a call down from there? Jeez, I don't know, but I tend to think not. I'd think a call down from the turn would be somewhat EV-. But I don't know.

marand · #3 08-25-2005, 02:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villian seems to be a LAG, but haven't played with him enough to be really sure. Let's assume he has 50% VPIP, 25% PFR and is aggressive after the flop.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, 3 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 4.25 BB

I really don't like this kind of situation. I don't know how to play it.

On the flop I think my hand is OK. My hand is better than many of the hands that he will autobet. If I am behind I have a gutshot and 3 outs for an Ace.
My plan was to call the flop and if the turn card was "safe" call him down and hope he keeps betting missed overcards.
But when I saw that K on the turn I decided to fold.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Since nobody wanted to automagically solve my problem I thought about the situation and did some PokerStove experiments. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

I gave the player two different hand ranges. Top 20% and top 40%. (A TAG might play 20% in MP and a LAG might play 40%)

I used the flop and turn from my hand and gave "hero" A5o.

My assumption is that villian will bet again on the turn with any hand he raised preflop with. The flop is ragged and he will put us on overcards which he thinks we can fold on the turn unimproved.

I also assumed that villian will bet the river when he has the best hand and we could call. When we have the best hand villian would check the river most of the time, but would occationally bluff and lose another BB. (This was done to give villian an edge because by his position.)

From my calculations calling down is +EV against both the 40% and the 20% range of hands for villian.

If we change the board to 862K instead (now we don't have a gutshot), then calling down is +EV against the 40% range, but not against the 20% range.

But calling on the flop is profitable against both ranges, but a high card (non A) makes it a fold against the tighter range.

Thoughts?

marand · #4 08-25-2005, 02:56 PM

I obviously also thought it would be -EV to call down, but now I have changed my mind. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]