AA flops a set, take a look at river play (6max)

Abelardo · #1 08-23-2005, 10:51 PM

SB is TAG, button is LAG (after flop of 1, vpip of about 70%), UTG is fishy but aggro preflop (vpip of about 50% and pf rise of about 25%, af less than 0.5 so far).

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (17 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets, Button raises, SB 3-bets, UTG calls, Hero calls, Button calls.

Turn: (14.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero raises, Button 3-bets, SB calls, UTG calls, Hero caps, Button calls, SB calls, UTG calls.

River: (30.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

Final Pot: 30.50 BB

Whart do you think of the flop? I thought my hand was so strong I could wait until the turn for a rise war. The real question is my river play, the more I think about it I'm inclining towards betting out despite the scary board, I should bet this right? Thank you.

Abelardo

Deamon2 · #2 08-23-2005, 11:00 PM

just cap the flop. you have by far the best of it, and should get as much money in as you can. No one is slowing down for that fourth small bet.

capping the turn is cool, there's only one hand you're behind to and it's unlikely.

I'd bet the river. given the previous action I'd be suprised if anyone had a T, and I bet they're just as scared of it as you are. I'd bet and call a raise.

Harv72b · #3 08-24-2005, 12:35 AM

If there is one thing I've learned in my time at 1/2 6max (any 6max, really), it's that nobody is folding a pair of aces. Ever. So when you've got a set of 'em and someone else is raising, particularly someone who 3-bet you preflop, raise right back and raise liberally. It definitely looks like Button has AK based on his play on latter streets, and if so you missed some bets here.

Bet the river & call a c/r. Top set has more than enough value to bet here, and there are plenty of worse hands that will call in such a large pot.

EDIT: Okay, based on your read Button might have anything, but I still cap the flop & bet the turn. And I'd fold the river if I bet & it came back 2 or more bets to me.

@bsolute_luck · #4 08-24-2005, 06:05 AM

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Okay, based on your read Button might have anything, but I still cap the flop & bet the turn. And I'd fold the river if I bet & it came back 2 or more bets to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...really? i'm not folding Top set in that big pot. if someone has a T, fine, but i'm not folding.

bet the river.

adsman · #5 08-24-2005, 06:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: Okay, based on your read Button might have anything, but I still cap the flop & bet the turn. And I'd fold the river if I bet & it came back 2 or more bets to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

hmm...really? i'm not folding Top set in that big pot. if someone has a T, fine, but i'm not folding.

bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that you should only bet this river if you are prepared to fold it.

@bsolute_luck · #6 08-24-2005, 06:29 AM

hmmm..interesting. i guess i'll have to think about that as i still disagree.

what hands do you see playing the hand this way having a T in it? AT is the only 1 i can figure and there are only 4 combos of that. i can't see TT because SB check/raised the flop, Button is gonzo both on the flop and the turn, so i'm not putting either on that.

i think if UTG came alive, i'd fold seeing him call entirely the way down, but the others...i just can't see it.

Innocentius · #7 08-24-2005, 07:15 AM

I'm not sure about the flop. Think I would cap.

About the river: UTG is the guy to worry about. Given the previous action, I don't see the button or SB having a 10. Given his 50% VPIP, having something like AT/KT/QT/JT is not excluded, looking at his preflop play.

On the turn, he doesn't seem like a made straight. This only leaves QT to worry about. Which other hands could he have played this way with? I guess 66, Ax, JQ, and maybe a few others. On the whole, another hand is more likely than QT. Therefore, bet.

Fantam · #8 08-24-2005, 07:25 AM

I agree with capping the flop and betting the river, because it is unlikely that anyone else has a T.

However, I would not fold if raised by button or check/raised by SB or UTG. The pot has simply become too big.

MATT111 · #9 08-24-2005, 07:47 AM

If I had a pretty much limited amount of time like you had I would have probably checked the river too. As I thought about it I think you have to bet + call a raise.

SB: He called a 3-bet preflop and was aggressive on flop+turn. River card + turn action seem to scare him. Im 90% sure he has AK (if he wasn`t tight AJ is possible too).

UTG: Well he could have a wide range of hands. I don`t think that it is particularly likely ha has a T.

Button: According to your read as LAG his range of 3- betting hands preflop is AA-77, Ak-AT, KQ. We can narrow his holdings postflop to AK-AT, JJ. AT is possible but not very likely.