Statistical Problem

I was wondering if Ribbo, or any other mathemagician can help me out with this because I keep screwing up big hands, or big opportunities with this play....

Can someone tell me the odds of being busted when I have top trips on the board, but at the same time there is a straight draw going on....and at the same time what are the odds of getting busted with a flush draw on the board.

With a straight draw, and two cards to come, there are 8 cards that will make me miserable, with a flush draw there are 9 cards. But, should one of those cards come on the turn, I still have 9 cards to save me to make a house or quads...once the turn hits, I know how to figure out where I'm at in the hand, but after the flop the math escapes me a bit to figure out the successive probabilities for the upcoming two hands.

I can't tell you how many times I just screw up that situation, either I'm betting too hard, or sometimes, I'm hesitant to bet because I'm ready to get busted. I'm rarely on the right side of things. If I had a better grasp of the odds, I know that my play will adjust to that successfully.

Thanks for your help!!!

the Hun.

[Mendacious]

How do you figure there are only 8 cards to make a straight?

It depends on what the 2 board cards are that can make the straight.

say K, 5, 6 is on the board, and you have trip Ks.

there are 24 cards that make straights on that board. Any (4) of each of 2,3,4,7,8 & 9!

Your chances to improve are much easier to calculate. You have 7 outs on the turn, and 10 on the river to make your boat or 4 of a kind.

What's worse is, on a board like this, I think there are Zero combinations of cards that can come (excluding those that improve your hand) that DON'T make a possible straight (and/or a low)!

You're right, you're right, ten outs, not nine...i'm still a bit sleepy. And you're right on the outs with the straights and flushes...ok...so given all that... playing top trips on the board with a straight/and/or/flush draw staring you right in the face....HOW IS THIS PLAYED CORRECTLY? Push real hard and force the other guy to chase hoping that you don't get busted...or let the hand slowly develop but unfortunately, you're giving away free cards, and I'm not in that business. I've played them both ways, and it's cost me a ton each way....

Suggestions?????

[Ribbo]

Play more poker, then after that, play more poker.

Eventually you will see your hands hold up and you will start to understand that the results of a few hands account for very little in the long run. Work on your mental attitude as I talk about a lot. If you can't get it straight, PLO8 is going to chew you up and spit you out.