Deep 5/10 NL: Bottom set under pressure

HoldEmKillah · #1 08-23-2005, 03:43 PM

Taken from about a week ago...

Villian is the button ($2100) and is 18/5/3.4. He's tight, solid yet can be overly-aggressive with his good hands but not donkish. I'm UTG ($1600) with 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].

Preflop:
I call, VILLIAN calls, SB calls, BB checks.

FLOP: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet $35, VILLIAN raises to $70, I raise to $240, VILLIAN raises to $700.

My action?

#2 08-23-2005, 03:59 PM

This smells like he may well have a bigger set. He could play it like that with either 4s or 8s.

He might be oveplaying an overpair or two pair, but it seems like he would have raised pre-flop with an overpair.

If we say it would take him at least two plair to take this line there are 21 ways he can have 2 pair and a total of six ways he can have an over-set. He is a huge dog if he is in with an overpair or TPTK.

I think I push here. The reason you came in with pocket 3s was to make a set. You got it.

GL

redtrain · #3 08-23-2005, 04:02 PM

Push or fold, go with your read.

#4 08-23-2005, 04:02 PM

Sorry if I seemed to contradict myself from the beginning to the end of my other post, but that is my mind worked. I.e., 1. How is the hero behind? 2. How is the hero ahead? 3. What should the hero do based on the balance of those two factors.

Vince

lapoker17 · #5 08-23-2005, 04:04 PM

Tough spot, but I think I'm pushing.

Because you hold 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] - Pair + Flush draw is out - which is bad for us as he may play that the same way, and that is a hand we'd love to add to his range as it would make a push even easier - you are also a significant favorite over any other draw - 56 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] etc.

So if you're really asking, can I get away from set over set here, then my answer is a question:

Is he a guy who will limp 88 on the button with limpers, or is that a raise for him?

Without a great read, easy push.

fimbulwinter · #6 08-23-2005, 04:20 PM

you have all the cards for the big combo draws. also, he's not trying to induce a fold here. if he's logical, fold.

fim

PokerNeophyte · #7 08-23-2005, 04:23 PM

I'm surprised there's so much enthusiasm for a push. This seems like a situation where you'll probably be called only if you're beaten.

Of course, the correct line will be read dependent, but I'd expect the re-re-raise for this amount to be nothing less than a bigger set. I'm probably folding in this situation.

HoldEmKillah · #8 08-23-2005, 04:33 PM

How about this:

If he has a big draw, would he mimimum raise? Maybe to get a free river card. But most decent players with big draws here like to play it fast and hard. So I would expect a big flop raise, not to $70 like he did.

Now IF he played his big draw by mini-raising me, it doesn't make sense to come back over the top does it? He very quickly made it $700 btw. He didn't have to stop and think about my reraise to $240.

MTBlue · #9 08-23-2005, 04:34 PM

How do this guy play his draws? with a 16 VIP he probably isn't drawing too often and it seems like he probably pushes over your 230 with a draw. I fold. Your odds aren't great you're risking 1300 dollars to win 1900 and the only logical hand he could have is a set. His VIP says he doesn't play 84s or 43s but I suspect you called b/c you have always been a complete calling station [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

DookieMT

AZK · #10 08-23-2005, 04:39 PM

Look up how he plays sets. Party gives you 20 seconds... this is more than enough time to look up how fast he plays sets. I do this every so often when I'm playing on too many tables and have no reads. I agree though, this looks like a fold that I'm probably not good enough to make.