Live $20/$40 - simple river decision?

Live 9 seated $20/$40 limit hold'em game. Button is a semi-solid player who, if there are any limpers, always raises preflop w big As, and big pocket pairs. With only one mid position limper he would almost always raise with As as weak as 8, pocket pairs down to 66, and any suited broadways. Occasionally in this situation, he would raise with unsuited broadways, particularly with a K.

preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, MP+2 calls, <font color="#666666">fold</font>, button raises, Hero 3 bets, <font color="#666666">BB folds, limper folds</font>

flop: (8 SB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Hero bets, button calls

turn: (5 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
hero bets, button raises, hero reraises, button calls

river: (11 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>

What do I do now? Is this anything other than a bet/call situation?

It seems like any hand that beats me on the river except AJ (and possibly, but much less likely, AA) would have 4 bet the turn. He is not a tricky player on the river.

[kelvin474]

I think that since he will be getting 12:1 on a river call, he's paying you with all the 2-pair aces, the worse sets, and maybe AK. I imagine there's a lot of semibluffing stuff he could have had on the turn like a big spade with a pair or gutshot or OESD. However that doesn't sound too solid by him since so many PF SB 3-betting hands have connected with this board.

I think the 2-pair Aces-up hands and worse sets he is liekly to pay off with are frequent enough to make up for the times he semibluffed a Jack. The lack of a turn 4-bet makes it sounds like he doesn't have KJ or spades esp since you described him as non-tricky on the river.

I like a bet and I like 14:1 enough to call a river raise. A river raise definitely sucks though.

[budman]

Personally I'd check call here. I am hoping he originally raised with A9 or some other dusty ace, possibly with the other card a spade.

If you bet out, he probably can't even pay you off with A9. The only hands he can call you with are AQ, AA, JJ, TT JX. Some of those hands beat you and he might play back at you.

But if you check, some of those hands that you beat he might take a swing with, and you are forced to call him down.

I know most posters will think this is a weak play but it makes sense to me.

[DeezNutz3]

I like to bet and call a raise.

[Pot-A]

Bet and fold to a raise. If he as you beat but doesn't have a big flush he'll most likely call your bet and bet if you check, so no difference.

If he's not tricky, he's probably only raising the flush, so you can let it go if he does (but be ready for some attempted-bullying later).

He may have raised the turn with a pair and a big spade with the intention of checking behind on an unimproved river. You pick up an extra bet here often enough to make it worthwhile.

[Rick Nebiolo]

I like betting but how can you fold to a raise? When someone says an opponent is "not tricky", they can still be a little tricky.

~ Rick

[elindauer]

If you get raised here, your odds of winning are terribly low. After you have 3-bet pf and 3-bet the turn, it's clear you have a big hand. I doubt he'll raise the river with anything less than a straight.

The other key is that he must have some kind of made hand to raise the turn. There's no way he's on a pure draw. Players with a little something to showdown don't often bluff raise.

In light of that, I think betting and folding to a raise is a reasonable line. Betting and calling in this big pot is fair, and check calling could be good since many players will value bet any 2 pair or set hand if you check to them.

In other words, you really can't go wrong.

Good luck.
Eric