Pokergrader Avg Luck

[swatkaizen]

Has anyone else been measuring their avg luck per session? I love this software, and I find it interesting, useful, and comforting when I felt that I played well but still had a -BB/100 session.

I've been "lucky" enough to avg -4.9 over my last 5K. I assume that luck should go to 0 as hands approach infinity, but I'm wondering if anyone has tried a very large sample size?

I'm just curious ... does anyone know how to measure the variance in luck after say 100K hands? What are the chances that the avg luck would be outside +/-1 at the size?

Pokergrader, what results do you have from testing it? I'm guessing that if you just used the hands that people submitted it would more likely be negative, since I think people are more concerned (and thus more apt to use pokergrader) when they are running bad than good.

Thanks for any insight! [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[baronzeus]

I get -luck every single time, I think it's rigged.

[pokergrader]

The overall luck factor was designed completely for use with the leaderboard. I was trying to come up with a way to combine 4 different luck factors into one number, and have it still be accurate. Also, in order to achieve the goal of the leaderboard, the "Overall Luck" statistic added in a little bit of the potential profit, which while still accurate adds a little more noise to the exact luck factor.

Again, the "Overall Luck" stat was never meant to be used in place of the each individual luck stats, but now I see why it was. As such, I've tweaked the formula a bit to reduce the noise and keep the luck statistics based only on the pokergrader luck statistics. It should range somewhere between 40 (really good luck) and -40 (really bad luck), but I will see what happens with the leaderboard to see how it shapes up.

Should be much more accurate than before.

[OrianasDaad]

Does pokergrader calculate the EV for each action a player could take?

[pokergrader]

[ QUOTE ]
Does pokergrader calculate the EV for each action a player could take?

[/ QUOTE ]

It attempts to calculate the average profit for every situation you are in. Then compares your actual profit to the estimated profit.

The luck portions are much simpler. It just compares the average card strength vs the actual card strength (on the flop, turn, river), then your expected winning % at showdown based on potential holdings of your opponent. Then all 4 statistics are normalized per dollar. It isn't perfect, but I think it is pretty good.

[baronzeus]

http://www.pokergrader.com/leaderboard.php

Proof that I actually suck at getting good cards.

[smartalecc5]

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.pokergrader.com/leaderboard.php

Proof that I actually suck at getting good cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ouch [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I have recorded my avg luck for a few months. Since the scale was changed in late July, I've played 32k hands and have an average luck of -16.6
Somewhere around -10 seems to be my breakeven point, any lower than that and I'm generally losing money, unless I've been paid off very well for a few hands. (I have 2 examples of +40BB sessions with -16 luck)
I don't have a single session with + luck.
Does anyone else have large sample sizes or any data to share?

[APerfect10]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does pokergrader calculate the EV for each action a player could take?

[/ QUOTE ]

It attempts to calculate the average profit for every situation you are in. Then compares your actual profit to the estimated profit.


[/ QUOTE ]

pokergrader, could you please explain Potential Profit a little further in depth? I've read the article regarding it and I've read your explanation above; however, my potential profit always seems high, real high!

For example, in the month of August so far, I've played 53422 hands with a net profit of $3462.63. (I'm running bad, real bad, anyways) My potential profit is $28533.77 which is 824% greater than my actual profit. Only 1 day out of the month my actual profit equaled my potential profit. My actual profit has never exceeded the potential profit. If this potential profit was completely accurate my actual profits would equal my potential profits over time. I personally think the algorithm(s) needs tweaking.

To help me better understand how PG is currently calculating Potential Profit lets look at three examples and please let me know what my PG potential profit would be.

Ex 1:
Dealt AA, raise 5x BB. 1 caller who flops a set, both players all in on the flop for 100 BB each.
Actual Profit: -100BB
EV: (5 * 1/8 [odds of him flopping set]) + (95 * .908 [Odds of him winning post flop]) ~= -87BB
PG Potential Profit: ?

Ex2:
Dealt KK, raised 5xBB. Flop Q high. 1 caller with top pair on flop for 15BB. Turn blank, both players all-in for 100BB total each. River caller catches 2nd pair.
Actual Profit: -100BB
EV: 100 - (5 * .128) + (15 * .184) + (80 * .114) ~= 87.5BB
PG Potential Profit: ?

Ex3:
Dealt AA. All-in pre flop versus KK. AA holds up.
Actual Profit: +100 BB
EV: (100 * 82.6) = 82.6 BB
PG Potential Profit: ?

Thanks for the help...

[pokergrader]

Potential profit is all about expected earnings, not actual earnings.

So lets take the first example. You raise 5x in the BB, you are called by 2 people.

So pot size is 15BB. PG figures out your pot equity, probably somewhere around 65% against two random opponents.
So you get 65% of 15BB.

Now onto the Flop, where you flop a rainbow of lower cards. Your pot equity has improved a little bit, and now is 75% among 3 players. Somebody pushes all-in, you call, and the other player folds.

PG calculates your pot equity, which probably is around 75-80% (100% = the nuts), then just applies that to the hand.
75% of 200BB = 150BB

So, you get 10BB preflop and 150BB post-flop. You put in a total of 105BB, so your potential profit is (160 - 105) = 55 BB.

It doesn't matter what your opponent has, since you cant possibly know that during the game. It all about expectations for profit based on long term average situations.