does a good soldier protect his kings?

eviljeff · #1 08-21-2005, 09:03 PM

villain is a LAG after 30 hands

PokerRoom 0.50/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: eviljeff is K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
3 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, eviljeff raises, 4 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 bets, eviljeff calls, MP1 folds.

anyone raise here? the only thing I want to fold that might fold is a weak A

Turn: (4.75 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, eviljeff calls.

not a good card, but I definitely don't want to raise here and I still think MHIG

River: (6.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets, eviljeff raises ...

waiting 'til to the river to raise when HU is a really money move I've acquired recently. if he's been bluffing the whole way I didn't make him fold now. if I get 3bet I know I'm badly beaten and can lay down. anyone not fold to a 3bet here?

Shillx · #2 08-21-2005, 09:08 PM

This line is very reasonable in these spots, but it can oftentimes be better to just raise straight away against a LAG who will raise for days with something like QT.

Raising the turn is also a valid play if you feel like he is betting a draw and will not fold it (so JT in this case).

Brad

Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

Durs522 · #3 08-21-2005, 11:01 PM

Grunch:

Like you said villian is lag. Raise the flop, bet the turn, bet the river. I think he's probably raising with a Q and not an AQ. He limp calls preflop so we shouldn't be too worried about an AQ or an A really. Why are we so worried about him folding here? I think the better idea would be to get him to call our raises with a weaker hand.

Durs

Durs522 · #4 08-21-2005, 11:04 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're folding to a 3 bet why shouldn't we just call. I've seen this play discussed but I'm not sure I understand it.

Durs

Shillx · #5 08-21-2005, 11:10 PM

Let's just make up some numbers...

He will fold to the river raise 20% of the time.
He will call the raise (and lose) 50% of the time.
He will 3-bet us with a boss hand 30% of the time.

Do you see why you should raise the river here (and not call a 3-bet)?

EV(don't raise river) = 0 BB
EV(call 3-bet) = .5 BB - 2 BB(.3) = - .1 BB
EV(fold 3-bet) = .5 BB - .3 BB = + .2 BB

So there is clearly value in raising, but if you always payoff a 3-bet you should just call. These numbers are made up, but you should get the idea.

Brad

Rev. Good Will · #6 08-21-2005, 11:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Edit - Not folding to a river 3-bet is beyond bad. You have to fold with this hand on this board.

[/ QUOTE ]

If we're folding to a 3 bet why shouldn't we just call. I've seen this play discussed but I'm not sure I understand it.

Durs

[/ QUOTE ]

villian would probably 3-bet an 8 or an Ace, but very rarely an Q. But since villians most likely hand is no better than a Q, we have lots of value in a river raise.

ddss6_99 · #7 08-21-2005, 11:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Let's just make up some numbers...

He will fold to the river raise 20% of the time.
He will call the raise (and lose) 50% of the time.
He will 3-bet us with a boss hand 30% of the time.

Do you see why you should raise the river here (and not call a 3-bet)?

EV(don't raise river) = 0 BB
EV(call 3-bet) = .5 BB - 2 BB(.3) = - .1 BB
EV(fold 3-bet) = .5 BB - .3 BB = + .2 BB

So there is clearly value in raising, but if you always payoff a 3-bet you should just call. These numbers are made up, but you should get the idea.

Brad

[/ QUOTE ]

Are those calculations something I should be doing every time I face a river bet/raise, or is it something that good players learn with experience?

Rev. Good Will · #8 08-21-2005, 11:56 PM

he made up those #'s to prove a point, deciding a range of hands based off opponents actions and acting accordingly

GTSamIAm · #9 08-22-2005, 12:39 AM

Raise/raise/raise. You usually only call on the flop heads up or three handed with a read on the third guy that he's probably folding anyways. And if villain is really lag, you're not folding to a three bet on the river. A call is probably better on the river here.

Dave G. · #10 08-22-2005, 12:40 AM

I don't like your line much.

Raise the flop. If he's a LAG he'll either 3-bet you or lead the turn which you can then also raise. If you get 3-bet, call it down and follow through with your plan. If he leads the turn, raise it as well.

If he slows down after a flop raise he's definitely not a LAG. You're missing a lot of bets here if he is.