Double shootout, heads up, top two pair facing river all in

[chumsferd]

Is this this the right forum for double shootout discussion? I wasn't really sure if here or the STT forum would be better...

Some context: This double shootout is a WCOOP qualifier event. This hand occured heads up at the end of the first table. 1st place advances to the final, 2nd place gets nothing.

General opponent read: Loose in unraised pots preflop, very tight and passive postflop. Preflop he calls most my min raises and rarely calls my 3xBB raises.

Specific opponent reads: He has limped every hand from the SB. He's shown a tendancy to min bet on all streets with marginal parts of the board (2nd pair type hands). I've seen him check the flop and turn before with top pair type hands, and then make moderately large bets on the river if openning the betting (sometimes he has just called if I have already bet).

Some recent history: This has been a long heads up battle. I've generally had control the whole time heads up, being very aggressive and stealing a lot. I've had the guy all in twice before, both times he had the better hand, bet all in and I called with a strong hand and failed to suck out (most recently with my AK vs his A6 on a A6x board).

I've been completely running over him. A few hands back, he tried to take a kind of stand against me - calling me down with T6 on a 6Jxxx board, I had AA. He's gone a little tight again since then.... then this hand occured...

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (2 handed)

Button (t5000)
Hero (t8500)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Kc, 9d.
Button calls t100, Hero checks.

Flop: (t400) 5c, 9h, 4h (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

I screwed up on the flop. I know this. There is no need to tell me.

Turn: (t400) Kd (2 players)
Hero bets t400, Button calls t400.

River: (t1200) 3d (2 players)
Hero bets t800, Button raises to t4400 (all in)...

Thoughts...?

[fnurt]

I pass. When a guy has been playing super-tight postflop, and suddenly goes all-in, there's too much of a chance he has the goods. He might have, let's say, K3, but I don't think he has it enough of the time.

Good information on the player by the way.

It's hard to put your opponent on anything specific because of the way he has been playing. Has he been making a lot of loose calls on semi-strong drawing hands? It's doubtful he's bluffing because as you said, he's very passive post-flop.

My first thought was that he hit his open ended straight draw on the river but based on how tight he is I'd say you're up against a weaker 2 pair

[ZBTHorton]

I call here in a second. What are you worried about? 6-7h? A set?

I think your up against a naked king a huge percentage of the time here.

[AceHiStation]

I call no question. Most people tend to overplay top pair in HU play. I could easily see 95, 45, K5, K4, K3 as possibilities. Sure occasionally you'll run into a fluke 67, but I think that's the only hand you'll be losing to.

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
I pass. When a guy has been playing super-tight postflop, and suddenly goes all-in, there's too much of a chance he has the goods. He might have, let's say, K3, but I don't think he has it enough of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think it's a lot more likely he has Kx and said "you've pushed me around enough." he may even be way overplaying a worse hand.

you have top 2 on a draw-free board playing heads up. get the money in.

[DemonDeac]

im not good enough to fold this
for some reason, i cant help but put villain on a flopped two pair with 45o and he was slowplaying it the whole way.

i call. even if i lose the hand. we've been aggressive enough to get more chips through stealing again

[chumsferd]

[ QUOTE ]
i think it's a lot more likely he has Kx and said "you've pushed me around enough."

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a major factor in my thinking. How do you deal with that in play? Is it purely a feeling thing for you? or do you have some analytical way of weighing it in with other aspects of your reasoning?

[schwza]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i think it's a lot more likely he has Kx and said "you've pushed me around enough."

[/ QUOTE ]

This was a major factor in my thinking. How do you deal with that in play? Is it purely a feeling thing for you? or do you have some analytical way of weighing it in with other aspects of your reasoning?

[/ QUOTE ]

i've had the experience several times where i've said "this guy's been super passive/tight heads up and he just put in a real big bet. he's going to have a big one, but i have a great hand so i have to call." and then villain shows something like 2nd pair or JT preflop, or something that's way worse than i expected.

so in this case it's largely personal experience. and it's not really a feeling like "this guy seems like he doesn't have that much" or an analytical analysis like "i think it's 15% he had 2nd pr, 25% he has top pair, etc [which would be mostly from feelings anyway]," and more a remembered lesson "just cause they were tight for a while, doesn't mean they're some robot that only plays the nuts." usually these little mini-lessons come from some combination of 2+2 and experience.

[HuggyBear]

One additional group of questions. How has this opponent played drawing situations? Any description besides passively? How has he played made drawing hands? Missed? This may be the most crucial read besides what you have already stated.

Generally I fold, expecting to be beat by his STRAIGHT 45% of the time, his set 35% and at best, beating a weaker two-pair at best 20% of the time.

I have been playing the Stars Heads-Up shoot-outs for admittedly smaller stakes (this is where I am estimating the probability dist. from), but in reading your player description (very complete) I feel he is not pushing with only two-pair.

Although you have been aggressively taking away pots, I have found that players like this have more patience than we give them credit for.

If you fold this pot, you still are in very good ship position to continue chopping away. Why take such a big risk?

In this situation, would this player put all his money in with-out at least a set. I feel a naked king is out of the question, for a overbet this size potenially risking the entry.

I have found myself in similar situations, facing over-bets by passive opponents and wasted a lot of aggressive work calling the nuts down. Be more careful here when he shows this much aggression without hand-strength to warrant it.