Middling Football games...

[Ken_AA]

How big a difference in spread do you need before going for a middle is profitable?

Ken

[Webster]

It depends where the line is. 1 point is GREAT if the line is over and under 3. But the larger the number the more points you need.

I would not even do it if it was not close to 3.

[tech]

Depends on which numbers you are middling. Football outcomes follow discrete distributions because of the scoring rules. Some numbers occur way more often than others. Get a good NFL database and calculate the percentages for each number for sides and totals (or look it up in a book or table if you don't mind old data). Then you can calculate precisely the EV of any middle based upon how often the numbers occur.

[YoureToast]

[ QUOTE ]
... Get a good NFL database ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Any hints on where?

[Webster]

This MIGHT help

The below chart has the Line and the % of the time the score HITS the line
<ul type="square">
1 3.1
2 4.0
3 16.8
4 7.0
5 2.7
6 5.9
7 6.9
8 2.3
9 1.8
10 5.9
11 3.4
12 1.8
13 3.3
14 4.5
15 2.1
16 2.0
17 5.1
18 1.2
19 1.1
20 2.7[/list]
As you can see middeling 3 is the big one

[craig r]

[ QUOTE ]
This MIGHT help

The below chart has the Line and the % of the time the score HITS the line
<ul type="square">
1 3.1
2 4.0
3 16.8
4 7.0
5 2.7
6 5.9
7 6.9
8 2.3
9 1.8
10 5.9
11 3.4
12 1.8
13 3.3
14 4.5
15 2.1
16 2.0
17 5.1
18 1.2
19 1.1
20 2.7[/list]
As you can see middeling 3 is the big one

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this from Wong's book or is it updated? I don't have his book in front of me, so just curious.

craig

[tech]

[ QUOTE ]
Any hints on where?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's been a while since I bought one, but just do a Google search. There are a ton of places that sell them. You should be able to get a good historical NFL database for $100 or so.

[gomberg]

This is harder than it looks. There are not many, and it's hard to find exactly what you want. (this from a guy who has googled and searched for a good database for about 4 hours in the past week).

[tech]

What about this one: http://www.mrnfl.com/database.asp. It was the second result on my search and it looks like it has most everything you would want for $99.

[Webster]

craig r - it''s something old I copied off the SHGoddess forum a number of years ago.