Stop and Go'd - a place to fold?

[jskills]

Not much of a read on villan.

8/0/5.0 over 35 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

I assume he put me on a flush draw with the flop raise, so he figures why stop betting his queen on a safe turn card. Not sure given (1) the pot size (2) the number of clean outs and (3) opponent left to act behind me that I can make this call. I have been trying to find more good spots to fold, since I think I've got a leak in going to showdown too often.

Thoughts?

[paperboyNC]

You have four outs to the straight, two outs to trips and three outs to two pair.

If you hit two pair, you lose to a ten, and a diamond of any sort may give MP3 the flush (he is still around).

The problems with calling the turn are:

A) You may feel compelled to call the river unimproved (reverse implied odds)
B) MP3 might raise here here.

On the one hand, you have the direct odds to call, but those two factors would make me lean toward a fold.

[DrewOnTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Not much of a read on villan.

8/0/5.0 over 35 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

I assume he put me on a flush draw with the flop raise, so he figures why stop betting his queen on a safe turn card. Not sure given (1) the pot size (2) the number of clean outs and (3) opponent left to act behind me that I can make this call. I have been trying to find more good spots to fold, since I think I've got a leak in going to showdown too often.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

You have four outs to the gutshot, but this will not make you the nuts. If MP1 happens to hold AJ (unlikely but still possible at the low-limits) then your Ten outs are tainted. Let's count this as 3.5 outs.

You have two likely clean outs to trip 9s, minus the rare time that SB holds Q9 or 95. He did not reraise your flop bet, so I will assume that SB does not have a set.

I would count the Jacks as probably 1.5 outs. If SB holds a Jack, has already made 2 pair, or if MP3 holds QJ then your Jacks are no good.

That gives 3.5 +2 +1.5 for a total of 7 outs.
You need the pot to offer odds of 45/7 = 6.42:1 to justify a call. The pot now offers 5.5:1.

If we assume that you will gain 1 bet on the river if you make your hand, then this call might be marginally profitable. It's close, though, and a fold would not be a terrible play.

I agree with this analysis, put the SB on QJo or KQo most likely - for some reason the appearance of a K did not seem to bother the SB, when it might given that 2 other players are still in the hand. I think that a call here might be worth it despite the pot odds just to see what the MP does. If they raise then fold, if they fold then you can see the river and fold to a bet if you do not make your hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Not much of a read on villan.

8/0/5.0 over 35 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

I assume he put me on a flush draw with the flop raise, so he figures why stop betting his queen on a safe turn card. Not sure given (1) the pot size (2) the number of clean outs and (3) opponent left to act behind me that I can make this call. I have been trying to find more good spots to fold, since I think I've got a leak in going to showdown too often.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We really dont know what the small blind has. What worries me is MP3s cold call. He could have a Q or could be on a flush draw. You don't have many outs here. The only safe cards for you are 2 9s. There are too many straight and flush draws here on this board that can get you. I would have folded this hand on the flop.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not much of a read on villan.

8/0/5.0 over 35 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

I assume he put me on a flush draw with the flop raise, so he figures why stop betting his queen on a safe turn card. Not sure given (1) the pot size (2) the number of clean outs and (3) opponent left to act behind me that I can make this call. I have been trying to find more good spots to fold, since I think I've got a leak in going to showdown too often.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We really dont know what the small blind has. What worries me is MP3s cold call. He could have a Q or could be on a flush draw. You don't have many outs here. The only safe cards for you are 2 9s. There are too many straight and flush draws here on this board that can get you. I would have folded this hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would fold this on the flop? With middle pair? SB could be betting out a 5 or a worse 9 for all you know. I couldn't disagree with folding the flop anymore.

I did fold the turn however. At this point I believe it correct.

[W. Deranged]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Not much of a read on villan.

8/0/5.0 over 35 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (5 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, MP1 folds, MP3 calls, Button folds, SB calls.

Turn: (5.50 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero ?

I assume he put me on a flush draw with the flop raise, so he figures why stop betting his queen on a safe turn card. Not sure given (1) the pot size (2) the number of clean outs and (3) opponent left to act behind me that I can make this call. I have been trying to find more good spots to fold, since I think I've got a leak in going to showdown too often.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

We really dont know what the small blind has. What worries me is MP3s cold call. He could have a Q or could be on a flush draw. You don't have many outs here. The only safe cards for you are 2 9s. There are too many straight and flush draws here on this board that can get you. I would have folded this hand on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would fold this on the flop? With middle pair? SB could be betting out a 5 or a worse 9 for all you know. I couldn't disagree with folding the flop anymore.

I did fold the turn however. At this point I believe it correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

My one strong opinion on this hand so far is that as for the flop:

raising &gt; calling &gt; folding

This is one of those classic situations where the flow of play has allowed you to find a ton of value in a mediocre hand. If the ep player is leading out with a worse 9, a 5, or a straight draw or something, a flop raise will often allow you to get heads-up with much the best hand.

If you call here and get raised behind you, you'll have to call anyway; since, by calling with several to act behind me, I'm essentially committing to putting in two bets, I might as well do it now and reap huge advantages as far as hand promotion, protection, information, etc...