For Tradesports and Pinnacle users

There's a reverse hedge currently available using these two books that's very intriguing. For Regular season over/under wins, Tradesports is offering the Bills Under 7.5 at +147 while Pinnacle is offering the Bills Over 8.5 at +149. Basically, you can make a bet securing all Buffalo win amounts with the exception of 8 wins at a price of roughly -135.

[YoureToast]

-135 seems like a very good line to bet that a team does not win a specific number of games. Out of curiosity, what number would you surmise would be a poor bet with everything else being equal? -150? -175? -200? etc?

Good question. I don't compute odds on that sort of thing but I figured -135 was too good to pass up. Did a wager of $40 to make $30.

[craig r]

Just so I understand, you are laying 135 effectively saying that they will not win exactly 8 games?

craig

Yes

[YoureToast]

by the way, correct me if i'm wrong but that tradesports line is no longer available. I think it would come out to about -150 now as the tradesport contract for the under is at 60+.

The over is at 62. The under is at 40 (100-60). You'd be betting the under 7.5 on Tradesports.

[YoureToast]

Yes your correct on the TS line....By the way, according to the Sharp book, Buffalo will win exactly 8 games approximately 20% of the time.

Thanks for the info! With a Sharp real probability of 20% and an odds offered rate of 43% (100/235), that 23% discrepancy would be a 5 unit play (out of 5) for me during the NFL season. Maybe I should put a little more on this.